Research On Forewarning Management For Accidents Due To Human Factors Of Ships

The economic prosperity, rapid growth of international trade has been brought forward with the high-speed development of global economy and the enhanced communication among defferent countries. The water transport becomes busier and busier, and the ship becomes more and more important as one of conveyances in the transportation chain, so the rapid development of international trade puts forward rather high requirement, and the ship becomes more and more intelligent, integrated and complicated. The reliability of machinery equipment in ship system has become much higher with the development of human science and technology level and the advancement of society, so the maritime accidents due to ship machinery equipment has occurred less and less, but the maritime accidents due to human factors has been the main component of maritime accidents. The ship system has become a typical and complex socio-technical system, in which the role that human plays in this system does not become little because of the advanced science and technology level, In contrary the role becomes stronger and stronger in maritime accidents. How to implement forewarning management on ship accidents due to human factors has been the most important event to ship transportation enterprises, which is also the important event for the rapid growth of international trade and high-speed development of global economy.This paper defines ship system safety accident, and clarifies the cognition of "where is no accident, where is safe" which effects people for a long time, and believes that the ship system accident is a process of a system function exerting which has the typical system evolution features. And this paper points out that the ship safety accidents are the merely utimate stage and form of system evolution, which has less great significance for ship accidents forewarning management, and the whole process of system evolution should be paid great attention; This paper discusses the characteristics of ship safety accidents detailedly, and analyses the rules of ship safety accidents based on a mass of statistical data. Based on the rules, this paper points out that the human factors of ship safety accidents has been enhancing, so the effective forewarning management of ship accidents due to human factors will reduce the incidence rate of ship safety accidents to a great extent. The forewarning management of ship accidents due to human factors has been the most important component of safety management in ship transportation enterprises. This paper studies the causation mechanism of ship accidents due to human factors deeply, in which the traditional accidents causation theories'main viewpoints are carded detailedly and the development vein of accidents causation theories is studied deeply. Based on the achievements from the research on traditional accidents causation theories, this paper points out that the traditional linear accidents causation theories which is based on Newtonian paradigm following the philosophical thinking of Descartes can only find out the causation elements of accidents, and the forewarning management of ship accidents is ex post facto empirical management which can not achieve the long-term prevention to ship accidents due to human factors. The ship accidents due to human factors is the process of a system exerting function, and the structure of the system plays more and more important role in ship accidents due to human factors evolution with the reliability of system elements being improved increasingly. The sructure sensitivity of the ship accidents due to human factors from the coherent interaction among system elements has been the most important causation.In the basis of the discrimination of forewarning and forewarning management and system elements causation and system structure causation of ship accidents due to human factors, This paper points out that the ultimate object of forewarning management on ship accidents due to human factors is to realize the intrinsic safety of the ship accidents system due to human factors, and to realise the long-term prevention on ship accidents due to human factors. This object has the typical hierarchy, which matches the hierarchy of ship accidents system due to human factors intrinsic saftey, and there is detailed content in each hierarchy. The hierarchy of the ultimate object in forewarning management on ship accidents due to human factors determines that the forewarning management has the characteristics of process nature, active improvement nature and flexibility nature. So, this paper establishes the process area model for ship accidents due to human factors in the basis of Capability Maturity Model(CMM), and the model consists primary safety area, structural safety area and safe culture area. The primary safety area realizes the intrinsic safety of system elements in ship accidents system due to human factors, and the structural safety area realizes the intrinsic safety of the coherent interaction among system elements, while the safe culture area is on the highest hierarchy realizing the intrinsic safety of ship transportation enterprise culture.To realize the intrinsic safety of system elements in ship accidents system due to human factors, the most important is to make some checking and evaluating. The elements in the ship accident system due to human factors consist two parts:the machinery inquipment and man. The study on the intrinsic safety of machinery inqipment should pay attention to the fault diagnosis. And there are a lot of methods to carry out fault diagnosis to machinery equipment, among of which the Surport Vector Machine newly popular in recent years has got better effect in fault diagnosis. But SVM has some disadvantages in solving fault diagnosis problems with the characteristics of small sample, multi-fault pattern and sample imbalance. In order to implement SVM in machinery equipment fault diagnosis better, this paper puts forward FCM-SVM hybrid algorithm to solve the problem of sample imbalance, and according to the problem that paramenters of SVM are not easy to select, this paper brings forward implementing PSO algorithm to realize parameters optimization which can get the theoretical optimal solution; About another important element's intrinsic safety in ship accidents system due to human factors-human, this paper defines the definition of primary intrinsic safety of human, and discusses the factors that affect its primary intrinsic safety deeply. According to the problem that it is difficult to quantitatively evaluate the primary intrinsic safety of human, this paper takes "Behavior-Consequence" as the starting point, and takes the consequence of ship accidents due to human factors as the evaluating objects to hunt for the relationship between behavior and consequnce, and also hunts for the variation law between the input and output. The relationship between the input (behavior) and output(consequence) has the typical grey characterisrics of small sample and poor information. So, this paper brings forward using grey relational analysis method in grey system theory to evaluate human's primary intrinsic safety problems, and according to the characteristic that grey relational analysis method is sensitive to index weight, this paper utilizes entropy weight to optimize grey relational analysis which can preserve sample's information better.The structure sensitivity causes the failure of causality in traditional accidents causation theories, and in ship accidents due to human factors, it is universal that the same causation has different consequence, and the same consequence has different causation. The structure sensitivity in ship accidents due to human factors manifests as the brittleness of the system, and this characteristic of ship accidents system due to human factors explains the reason why the current ship accidents forewarning management which is the unilateral, ex post facto empirical management can not realize the object of long-term prevention on ship accidents due to human factors. The structure causation mechanism and the evolution rule of ship accidents due to human factors are known about deeply based on the study on brittleness of the system. After the research on system brittleness entropy change and system brittleness association, the model carries out the ship accidents forewarning management due to human factors tenet of "safety first, prevention first".The intrinsic safety culture of the enterprise is the key factor to realize the object of long-term prevention for ship accidents due to human factors, and it is also in the highest level of forewarning management. The intrinsic safety culture affects the ship accidents system due to human factors detailedly, and how to realize the intrinsic safety culture is the key factor for ship accidents due to human factors forewarning. This paper studies on the intrinsic safety culture construction mode of ship transportation enterprises in the consideration of material culture construction, system culture construction and spiritual cultural construction, and points out the construction object and principle.