Studies On Traffic Organization Planning And Traffic Flow Simulation Under The Influence Of Major Public Emergencies

Something unexpected may happen any time. Natural or man-made emergencies have always been a major concern to humanity and a threat to lives and property. Many commonly natural emergencies include hurricanes, earthquakes, and floods. Man-made ones include leakage of nuclear material, terrorist attacks and so on. Although we can do little to avoid disaster, there are ways to prepare emergency actions to reduce their threat.Traffic and transportation system is one of the most important parts in the emergency infrastructure. Its accessibility and mobility can directly affect the level of success in dealing with emergency accidents. Evacuation of people to safe locations, transportation of emergency material to the vital sites (e.g. nuclear plants, chemical plants and so on) all depend on the traffic system. This paper studies the traffic organization planning and traffic flow simulation under the influence of major public emergencies, supplies the theory and technology actions for the evacuation of people and disaster relief.This paper studies the traffic system under emergency accidents from macro-level and micro-level:firstly, the traffic organization planning is studied based on the model of dynamic network traffic flow; then the disturbance factors and congestion's propagation on road are simulated by models of road traffic flow. The main contents of the dissertation are summarized as follows:(1) Firstly, the"Major Public Emergencies (hereinafter referred to as the MPE)" is detailedly defined. Then its influence on the traffic system is studied which includes two parts:for traffic demand and for traffic network. The traffic organization planning should meet the principle of system optimization (Wordrop's second principle) under the influence of major public emergencies. Based on the implement process of emergencies plan, the process of "development, implement,improvement" for traffic organization planning is studied.(2) The models and arithmetics for traffic action's generation under emergency accidents are proposed. This paper firstly analyses the characteristics of traffic demand, then designs the program flow for traffic action's generation. Lastly, a set of models and arithmetics are proposed for key nodes of the program flow.(3) Case studies. A case is designed for Authentication of the models and arithmetics proposed before. The solution of case includes a number of links, e.g. parameter processing of the road network and traffic demand, capacity assessment of road network, structural adjustment of road network based on control action and so on. Lastly, the traffic action under emergency incidents can be generated.(4) The road system's safety simulation under disturbance factors. The drivers' Personality differences will displayed significantly. This paper classified the typical characters, then proposed the cellular automaton (CA) model based drivers'Personality differences and simulates the speeding's disturbance for traffic flow. The simulation will help the traffic management organization to improve policies.(5) Studies on road congestion's propagation and dissipation. Based on the emergency incidents, the traffic accidents become more than usual. This paper takes the rules of lane-changing as breakthrough point, and proposed a new CA model by which we can simulate the congestion's propagation. The dissipation efficiency of Common Traffic Control Methods can be also studied by the model.