An Analysis And Forecast Of China Copper Supply And Demand Prospects Under The New Normal Economy

Since ancient times, copper is known as a "red metal" helpful for the national economic and social development, especially after the human society entered the stage of industrialization. Due to the huge demand of copper resources and a serious situation of resources shortage, the degree of dependence on foreign of China’s copper resources, maintained at about 70% in recent years. Therefore, copper is also belongs to one of the serious shortage of mineral resources in china.Since the 18 th national congress of CCP, China’s economy and society entered into a comprehensively deepening reform stage. At present, three stages, that is the growth rate shift period, the structural adjustment pains period and the pre-stimulus digestion period, have been superimposed. It shows an obvious "new normal" characteristics. In the critical period of economically structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, China’s resource consumption patterns are also quietly changing. In this context, the situation of supply and demand for Chinese copper resources will change with a great concern on the future trend.Based on the above reasons, the dissertation is writtened regarding Chinese economic new normal as a background, in view of a global perspective and Chinese resource endowment. By introducing the system dynamics model, the statistics and economics model, and the Departmental consumer law, demand for copper resources under the new normal will be quantitatively forecasted and qualitatively judgmented. Analysis on China’s future copper resources demand in different development scenarios will also be made. At the same time, according to the combination of domestic availability and foreign accessibility on copper resources, the prospects for supply and demand of copper resources will be analised in the key period of China’s industrialization and urbanization(ie, before 2030). Based on this, countermeasures and suggestions will be given to ensure the supply of copper resources.In the research, the method of combination between quantitative forcast and qualitative analysis is applied. By constructing multi-models, a series of major issues have been resolved. The main understandings are as follows.(1) The shortage of copper resources will never happen in the whole world. According to the USGS estimates, the total copper resources in the world is more than 3.7 billion tones, with 3 billion tones in the land, and 0.7 billion tones in the marine. As of 2012, the world’s copper reserves are 0.69 billion tones, static guarantee of copper reserves is more than 40 years. Moreover, in the past ten years, copper production and reserves growth rate, the world’s average annual growth rate of copper reserves is 8.5%, much higher than the average growth rate of copper mine production, that is 1.9%. Therefore, the shortage of global copper resources will not happen at least in this century, with the development of technology, and the economic exploitation grade lower.(2) Demand for China copper resources under the new normal is predicted by quantitative forcast method. Through the introduction of system dynamics, statistics and economics model, China copper resource demands under three scenarios that is high, normal and low GDP growth rate of China by 2030, has been obtained. It is predicted that by the year of 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030, the reference values of China copper resource demand are 10.6 million tons, 11.7 million tons, 16.1 million tons and 13.9 million tons, respectively.(3) Supply for China copper mine is predicted by quantitative forcast method. By combining Hubbert curve theory and its model and system dynamics model, the peak Chinese copper mine production and the year of the peak supply have been obtained under three scenarios that is high, normal and low ultimate recoverable reserves. According to the average ultimate recoverable reserves, the reference value of Chinese copper mine supply by year of 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030, are presented, that is about 2.12 million tons, 2.7 million tons, 3.1 million tons and 3.16 million tons, respectively.(4) The amount of the China recyclable copper is obtained by qualitative analysis. According to summarize the experience of western developed countries in copper recovery and utilization, it is predicted that the recoverable amount of China copper scrap by the year of 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030, is about 1.4 million tons, 2.9 million tons, 3.4 million tons and 4.0 million tons, respectively.(5) The availability of china overseas copper resources is abtained by qualitative analysis. Through statistical analysis, by the end of 2013, China’s enterprises have access to the rights and interests of overseas copper resources of about 80 million tons, with the copper mine capacity about 0.83 million tons / year. It is expected by 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030, the rights and interests of overseas Chinese copper concentrate production probably amount to 0.47 million tons, 1.0 million tons, 1.2 million tons and 1.4 million tons, respectively.In the overall view of copper supply and demand, China copper resources will be probably a "first loose-then tight-then loose" trend from 2015 to 2030. If the interests of overseas copper resources is excluded, it is expected that by 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030, the domestic copper resource guarantee degree will be 33.2%, 47.8%, 40.3% and 51.5%, the degree of dependence on foreign is respectively 66.8%, 52.2%, 59.7% and 48.5%. Considering the interests of overseas copper resources, degree of guarantee would be raised to 37.69%, 56.38%, 47.82% and 61.66%, respectively.Based on the above analysis, this study suggests that, despite the global shortage of copper resources should not happen, China economy has entered a new norm, China demand for copper resources should increase still in the next 10 years, and the demand will remain in high level, as well as a serious shortage of domestic copper mine supply. Moreover, with the national implementation of the " One Belt And One Road " strategy, and the establishment of the Asian infrastructure investment bank, it is bound to set off a wave of infrastructure construction boom in the world, demand for bulk mineral resources including copper, should increase a lot, and the competition among the newly industrializing countries will become increasingly fierce.In this regard, this study puts forward several suggestions and countermeasures, that is, strengthening domestic copper exploration to increase copper reserves, focusing on resource diplomacy to obtain overseas copper resources and to build a "Latin American – neighbor countries- Africa system", more actively cultivating large mining companies or more actively participating international mining giants to strengthen the control of the world high quality copper resources, promoting the integration between exploration and development to increase the utilization rate of copper resources, more cautiously exploitating copper resources to construct a green mining industry, paying attention to new mining technology to make full use of low grade ore, strengthening the recycling of copper in use to establish a resource-saving society, etc.