Research On The Residual Income Value Based On Ohlson Model And Non-Accounting Information

Since the commodity exchange emerged in sixteenth Century, assets valuation has been accompanied by the process which human created the social wealth. When the industrial revolution led to the change of enterprise organization form and the idea of enterprise management developed to the value management stage, enterprise valuation problem becomes one of the important problems of theory and practice.Enterprise valuation can’t depart from value model. From late nineteenth Century to twentieth Century 50 years, according to the Western value idea, the three mainstream models gradually formed:cost method, income method and market comparison method. Among them, for considering the future enterprise profit ability and organizational capital, the income method is better than the other two methods and gradually becomes the primary valuation method. However, two defects of the income method which is with infinite sum and can’t directly use the accounting data have long puzzled the circles of theory and practice. two obvious defects exist in the infinite sum of income method and cannot use accounting data directly, has long puzzled the theoretical and practical profession.Until 1995, Ohlson proposed the modern residual income model which solved the above two problems, and the model also quickly swept the Wall Street. The researchers from different countries have tested the model from the different views, and most research results support the validity of the Ohlson model. However, residual income valuation Ohlson model has been also existed some problems, such as the risk neutral assumption and non-accounting variable measuring, and it was criticized by some researchers. Many studies have made important contributions in the risk neutral, so this paper does not pay attention to it. This paper is concerned with another important problem of the model, namely non-accounting variable measurement. Although there have been some studies on this issue, but the results are not satisfactory.Prior to solve the problem of other information measurement, there is an important problem to be solved:what is the value theory fundation of the model? On the one hand, this is related to the rationality of the model, on the other hand, it is related to the qualitative change of the model when it is corrected.Based on the above two problems, this paper first reviewed the three major schools of Western value theory, then explained the relationship of the traditional income valuation model and the theory of utility and pointed out that Ohlson residual income valuation model and the traditional income valuation method is different in the value theory fundation, finally the value theory foundation of Ohlson residual income valuation model is given. Then, through the five dimension of value judgment internationally, namely technological innovation, company growth, corporate governance, corporate rewards and corporate responsibility, this paper used the indices which represent the five dimension, selected the effective sample during 2007-2012 A stock market, measured the variable of non-accounting information, and the result shows that technological innovation, corporate governance and corporate responsibility are effective to measure non-accounting information variable. Then, this paper put the indices of three dimension into the linear information dynamic hypothesis and deduced the new formula of value model. This paper takes the value theory fundation of Ohlson residual income valuation model as the criterion and found that the value theory fundation of Ohlson residual income valuation model has not changed, so the new model is only a modification of Ohlson residual income valuation model. Finally, this paper selected samples of A share market during the period of 2007-2011, took the new formula compared with the valuation model without other information variable, earnings capitalization model, dividend discount model and relative value index model. The conclusions are as follows:(1) The value ideology of the residual income valuation model is different from the income model’. Residual income valuation model based on cost-utility value thought.(2) It is feasible to measure non-accounting information variable from technological innovation, corporate governance and corporate responsibility. It is a framework to measure non-accounting information in the future.(3) Estimation error of the new formula is less than estimation errors of the residual income valuation model without other information, equity free cash flow model, earnings capitalization model and relative value index model. But this conclusion is premised on using the real cost of equity capital, that is to say risk free rate of return is not used to value enterprise and the 10% fixed rate of return is not also used.(4) Closer to the real rate of return the equity capital cost rate is, more accurate the valuation which is obtained by the model with non-accounting information measured from three is.