Personal Credit Risk:extension Research On Theories And Methods

Credit market economy is the advanced stage of economic development,and economic activities are mutually connected by credit. Credit is not only an important marketing tool of the modern social and economic development, but also is the basis for the continuous development and derivation of financial activities. Individual credit plays an important role in improving people’s moral consciousness, legal norms, and clean living environment as well. Meanwhile, individual credit also effectively suppresses the occurrence of various social phenomena of corruption and fraud case. Ultimately, individual credit promotes the prosperity and development of overall social, economic and financial system. With the rapid development of China’s market economy, the field of individual credit involves more widely. Individual credit not only involves the people’s social contacts, credit transactions and ethics, but also involves the people’s spending behavior, individual credit loans, and even individual’s basic security and interests in the social life. Since the 16 th National People’s Congress of Communist Party of China, the Inner Party has planned a strategic plan on the construction of social credit system. In June 2014, the State Council issued the "Social Credit System Plan(2014--2020)," and proposed a major goal of social credit system construction.To achieve the objective, academia and industry needs to continually carry out innovative research.Individual credit risk evaluation is the key point of individual credit system construction, and is an important part of modern credit risk management as well, which has been now increasingly highly valued by government, industry and academia. From the perspective of commercial banks, with the rapid expansion of individual credit business, individual credit risk has become an important risk of China’s commercial banks, and it is also one of the important causes of financial system’s instability. Based on that, from the perspective of commercial banks, this dissertation expands the study on individual credit risk evaluation respectively from the theoretical level, the method level and credit risk management level. The main contents of this dissertation are as follows:(1) Expand research based on theoretical levelCurrently, the research on the theory of individual credit risk evaluation is rare. From the existing research literature, theory of individual credit risk evaluation is mainly invoked on the traditional credit risk evaluation theory, having not been fromed a distinctive theoretical system of individual credit risk evaluation. What is the infrastructure of individual credit risk evaluation? What kind of interaction that exists between moral hazard and the probability of credit default? These issues are the weaknesses of the current theory of individual credit risk evaluation. Based on this, this dissertation carried out the following studies.In terms of the spatial structure individual credit risk evaluation, this dissertation presented the concept of individual credit risk level(Individual Credit Risk Level, ICRL) and individual credit risk evaluation space(Individual Credit Risk Evaluation Space, ICRES).Based on that, this dissertation and discussed on the order relation and advantages structure of the individual credit risk evaluation. Further, with the application of spatial analysis methods and optimization techniques, we constructed a geometric approach of multi-dimensional dynamic individual credit risk evaluation based on discrete-time(Multidimensional Dynamic Evaluation Geometry Theory to Individual Credit).As to individual credit customers, moral hazard is one of the important factors that affect individual credit risk. How to identify the borrower’s moral hazard is one of the challenges for the commercial banks, but also the weaknesses for current individual credit risk evaluation theory. In this dissertation, from the theoretical level, we carried out research on a class of common moral hazard that individual credit customers do not follow the contract, and put the bank loans for other use. Through changes in commercial bank lending rates, the interactive relationship between the probability of customer’s moral hazard and the probability of default, and the internal mechanism in-depth analyzed.(2) Expand research based on the method levelWith the development of modern science and technology, and the multi-dimension and complexity nature of the individual credit risk, the development of the credit risk evaluation techniques currently transfers from statistical methods to artificial intelligence methods. Based on this, this dissertation carried out the following studies.In terms of building individual credit risk evaluation index system, this dissertation first proposed an identification method, which assesses the indicators’ ability to identify individual credit risk. Further, based on the identification ability, a class of effective method was proposed to build individual credit risk evaluation index system. Finally, based on the influence of evaluation indicators on individual credit risk evaluation, the significance of the indicators was sorted. The method of building individual credit risk evaluation system proposed in this dissertation, is different from the traditional method, is an expansion study on the individual credit risk evaluation index system method.In individual credit risk evaluation model construction areas, with the model of bilateral clustering structure, neural networks and genetic algorithms, the individual credit risk evaluation and classification from different perspectives is realized, is a further expand and improvement for the individual credit risk evaluation method system.(3) Research on credit card risk managementCredit card risk management is one of the most important areas of the individual credit risk management for commercial banks. The risk of bank credit card business is mainly due to the cardholder’s individual credit risk. The main factors affecting the cardholder credit risk include: the economic behavioral property and also the behavioral property of the issuing banks. In this dissertation, by using the experimental techniques of the multi-agent simulation, the mutual influence relationship of the cardholder and the issuing bank was simulated, in order to reveal the main factors affecting the credit risk of the cardholder. The research based on behavioral simulation, which is carried out in this dissertation, further expands the connotation of credit card risk management.Because of the difficulty of obtaining a large sample of individual credit risk currently, therefore, only a small sample data of a commercial bank was available in this dissertation.In summary, the results of this dissertation will help to improve and perfect the study of basic theory and methodology system of individual credit risk evaluation, which enhances the individual credit risk identification and management of commercial banks, and has very important academic value and application prospect.