Research On Power Demand Prediction And Power Resource’s Selective Configuration Of Electrolytic Aluminum Industry Development In Our Country

The development of electrolytic aluminum industry is a comprehensive project which involves energy economics, industrial economics, resource economics, the theory of economics, and the National Industry Policy. The power demand and selective configuration problems of the development of electrolytic aluminum industry are the core issues of above-mentioned project. At present stage, our country’s energy and resource is very scarce, therefore, there are theoretical significance and practical values to research the development of energy security of electrolytic aluminum industry under the resource restrictive conditions.This paper study the development of China’s aluminum industry in the power resource constrained problem from the point of China’s electrolytic aluminum industry development situation by the methods of qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation, and the contents of the paper are as follows:(1) put forward the development of China’s aluminum industry direction by studying China’s electrolytic aluminum industry of the grim situation and China’s electrolytic aluminum industry development trend in the future.(2) Analyzes the power surplus and shortage of electrolytic aluminum industry development influence using the established models to predict our future development of electrolytic aluminum industry demand for electricity and power supply.(3) Explore the suitable for China’s electrolytic aluminum industry development of energy structure of ideal area and the future of electrolytic aluminum industry layout by studying patterns of foreign main electrolytic aluminum production of aluminum- power resources and China’s national conditions.(4) Analysis of the impact of electricity price regulation policies on the development of electrolytic aluminum enterprises by constructing the system dynamics model of electrolytic aluminum industry development power selective configuration.There are some creative points of this thesis:(1) Study the development of electrolytic aluminum industry in China systematically under the condition of electric power resource constraints.The current scholars study aluminum industry from impacts of electrolytic aluminum industry of the national economy status, distribution and structural readjustment of electrolytic aluminum industry, aluminum industry policy and national macroeconomic regulation and control to electrolytic development. whereas this paper grasp the power demand of the development of electrolytic aluminum industry and the corresponding relationship between electric power supply capacity of the electric power industry in China on the whole, and focused on the selectivity of electrolytic aluminum industry development power resources configuration.(2) Predict the electrolytic aluminum of construction industry, transportation industry, power industry and packaging industry by building ARIMA and BROWN model.The current research on consumption of electrolytic aluminum in the view of downstream of electrolytic aluminum industry is relatively small; the thesis adopts the qualitative, quantitative and integrated method. It predict our country’s demand of future’s electrolytic aluminum power, analyze the impact that the abundance and shortage of the electricity to the electrolytic aluminum industry.(3) Analysis power demand and the structure and ability of electric power supply of electrolytic aluminum industry development in our country by using a variety of models.Build BP neural network prediction model of the electrolytic aluminum industry development power demand on the basis of aluminum electrolytic aluminum industry calendar year total power consumption and growth and varieties of industrial structure and regional structure analysis, divide the factors influencing the power demand of electrolytic aluminum industry into three levels in the order from coarse to fine. Then using the BP neural network model for the future to predict the energy needed for electrolytic aluminum industry development in our country, it is concluded that 2012-2015 the amount of electricity needed for electrolytic aluminum industry development in our country.(4) Propose a purpose and principle of the selective configuration for electrolytic aluminum industry development in our country and build the system dynamics model of selective configuration for electrolytic aluminum industry development in our country.Build the system dynamics model considering the inevitability of electrolytic aluminum industry development in our country and combining with the macro background of promoting energy conservation and emissions reduction work, and take the power cost for the leverage of electrolytic aluminum industry development in our country as the breakthrough point, and do simulation experiment for the possible effects of policy implementation, the paper provide reference for policy making of the sustainable development of electrolytic aluminum industry.