The Researh On Local Government Debt Risk And Risk Management Based On The Stakeholder

Local government debt risk management is the focus of concern to the Chinese economy at this stage. In the situation of launching a new round nationwide large-scale management of local government debt, according to the poor transparency, strong concealment of China’s local government debt and its difficulty of effective management, based on the social network stakeholder perspective, researching on the coupling mechanism of local government debt based stakeholder and the interaction relationship of stakeholders, to find the problem of local government debt to governance, and to find the right remedy, is the problem to be solved in theory and practice. Under the stakeholder conceptual framework, this paper researches along the logic of local debt risk management "identifying and classifying-influence-forming mechanism-dynamic evaluation-control measures", which obtains the following findings:Research on the identifying and classifying, influence of Local government debt stakeholder. To definite the local government debt stakeholder, according to the local government borrowing debt, using debt, debt running chain, identifies debt stakeholders. Through investigating and analyzing the impact of the debt of stakeholders, this paper classifies them into four categories: the core type, sub-core type, support type and edge type, and verifies the effect of classification.Research on the model of social networks relationship of the local government debt based stakeholder. This paper uses social network analysis to measure the local government debt stakeholder indicators, building the model of social networks relationship of debt stakeholders. This paper analyzes the network structural characteristics from the structural network, network cohesion, action-peer network, network reciprocity in terms of debt stakeholders. It shows the coupling mechanism of stakeholder and the stakeholder interactions, revealing the network structural features of the local debt stakeholders.Research on the genesis and evolution path of the local government debt risk based on the stakeholder perspective. Based on the theory of system dynamics and economic sociology, this paper analyzes the forming mechanism of debt risks from the levels of stakeholders’interests drive, incentive, network structure, information game, which reveals the key factors of the formation of debt risk are:stakeholders economic interests driver, distorted incentive and restraint mechanisms, mutual non-coordinated network configuration, information game imbalance; it analyzes the key factors of conducting debt risks, which reveals the path of local debt risks transmission and transmission effect of macro risks.Research on the evaluation of RS-SVM local government debt risk based stakeholders. According to the conceptual framework of stakeholders, this paper builds an assessment system of debt risk "borrowing debt-using debt-repaying debt-influencing"; and builds RS-SVM local debt risk assessment model, which conducts empirical assessment and dynamic prediction for the debt risk of 14 cities of Liaoning, and evaluates the effectiveness and the generalizability of RS-SVM model.Research on the local government debt risk management based stakeholders. According to the forming mechanism of local government debt risk, this paper proposes the model of category governance of debt risk "light warning, moderate warning, severe warning"; to establish a constrain and supervision mechanism of debt stakeholder "core-relevance", and proposes the specific measures for the local government debt risk management, which provides decision-making basis for the local government debt risk management.