Research On The Effect Of Cross-border Trade RMB Invoicing And Settlement

Since July 1,2009, there are more than 5 years for pilot running cross-border trade RMB invoicing and settlement (abbreviated by CBRS) in our country. The prominent progress is made in the relative business of CBRS pushed by the market demand and government policy. The scale of CBRS is increasing, the international status and acceptance of RMB is being promoted and the RMB offshore market also is developing. In words, with the development of CBRS business, other related business is also advanced. Thus, it is necessary to recall this policy original intention which is to widen the use of cross-border trade, expand the transaction of international trade and investment, boost effective allocation of resources and deep mixture of market, fasten the race of going global strategy and build newly open economic system through CBRS strategy. One side is the original aim of CBRS, the other side is the growth of macroeconomic condition, the medium is CBRS and the period is 5 years (we often examine the tendency of economic development in the period of 5 years, such as five-year plan), so we should summarize the relationship among these.It is the task to study the effect of CBRS on economic side, including on export-import trade, capital flows and RMB internationalization and to test the reality of this policy. Then, the obstacles and countermeasures can be found and made, and the path will be developed for next 5 years and even longer time. At last, the RMB internationalization will be fully realized. Based on the combined method of theory and practice, quality and quantity, analysis and summary and literature review, the above three effects of CBRS are discussed as follows.The first chapter is introduction. At first, the background is described and the topic is raised. Secondly, the object of study is defined and the study significance is stated. Thirdly, there are study content, frame and method. At last, the innovation and deficiencies are illustrated.The second and third chapter is theoretic base and practical condition respectively. The second chapter introduces money internationalization and its effect theory, international trade invoicing and settlement currency selection and its effect theory one by one, and relative literature reviews including influence on export-import trade, capital flow and influence on RMB internationalization to support this study. The third chapter describes the CBRS running foundation, running status, running mode and running perspective.The fourth, fifth and sixth chapter deeply analyzes the three effects of CBRS. The fourth chapter is the effect on export-import trade. Firstly, there are theoretic analysis based on syndrome differentiation, game and general equilibrium. Secondly, based on statistical data and to apply the comparative method of three periods, the general effect on import-export trade is studied through decomposed effects including import-export size, import-export structure, trade terms and trade dependence, which makes the same conclusion as the above theoretical analysis. Thirdly, through the empirical analysis method including, the effect on export-import trade is analyzed, and the direction, degree and channel of all effects are clearly indicated. At last, there are the conclusion of this chapter and the effect tendency. For all of effects on export-import trade, the effect period is much longer, and income effect degree is biggest while independence effect degree is smallest.The fifth and sixth chapter is the effect on capital flows and RMB internationalization, which analysis method is the same as the fourth chapter. The fifth chapter illustrates the price effect, the scale effect, and structure effect of capital flows. In terms of influencing time, the reflecting speed is quicker than that of export-import trade. In terms of influencing degree, price effect is biggest. In terms of influencing direction, only the scale effect on capital demonstrated by RMB is positive. The sixth chapter elaborates the RMB as international money effect, the RMB offshore market effect and cross-border RMB circulation effect. In terms of influencing time, the reflecting speed of RMB internationalization effect is quicker than that of export-import trade. In terms of influencing degree, the RMB offshore market effect and cross-border RMB circulation effect are biggest. In terms of influencing direction, all of effects are positive.The seventh chapter is the policy recommendations for lifting CBRS effect. At first, the basis principles are raised, which the core essence for formulation of relative policies. Then, based on the roadmap of effect promotion, the general ideas are illustrated, which give the direction for relative policy formulation. Thirdly, the concrete countermeasures are given for elevating the total effect, export-import trade effect, capital flows effect and RMB internationalization effect. At last, CBRS development is forecasted.