A Study On The Impact Of Credit Rationing On Economic Growth In China

Since the reform and opening up, China has experienced a rapid development for more than 30 years, which has attracted worldwid’s attention. Especially since the building of the socialist market economy in 1992, the average annual growth rate of 1992-2014 has reached 10.1%. In addition, the investment has played a key role in the three carriages, and the bank credit accounted more than a half for the social financing but the phenomenon of credit rationing is very obvious in our bank credit. So,does the credit rationing which was thought to be negative to the economic growth turn to be positive?When we discussing the effect that the credit rationing taking on the economic growth,the credit channel of monetary policy playes an important role. So the paper is based on a credit channel of monetary policy. So the paper established a credit channel of monetary policy,which is also called financial accelerator model,using external finance premium leverage rate flexibility to indicate the extent of credit rationing. Then, the paper tries to establish a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The article has collected quarterly datas from 1992 to 2014, uncovering the impact that China’s credit rationing on the economic growth.The article is divided into seven parts:the first chapter is the introduction,it mainly introduces the content of the background and significance of the backdrop, the research methods and the definition of credit rationing,the structure and the technical route and the possible innovation. The second chapter is a introduction for the related theory and literature review,it includes four aspects,the first is the review on the research of the credit rationing theory,the second is a review of the theory of economic growth,and the third is a review of theory introduction and literature for the effect,and the fourth is about dynamic stochastic general equilibrium,analysis method of basic definition,solution and estimation methods, and the development and application situation are introduced here. The third chapter introduced the history and current situation of China’s credit rationing,economic growth and the credit policy,the first is the causes and characteristics of credit rationing;what’s followed is the degree of credit rationing;next is the history and current situation of China’s economic growth;The finally is the implementation of the credit policy in our country. The fourth chapter is the theoretical and practical analysis to the effect,we first discuss the reason of the effect,then we analysis the theoretical part and the practicalpart. The fifth chapter is the empirical analysis, first of all is the characteristics and innovations of our model. The sample data is divided into two sub samples,then we use the two samples to compared with the actual economic. Finally, full sample was used to study the effct on real economy,and we draw some important conclusions of this paper. The sixth chapter is the international reference of the impact,the first is the experience of Japan and South Korea,and the second is the experience of the United States and Britain. The seventh chapter is the conclusion of the paper,policy recommendations and research prospects. Firstly is the conclusion of this thesis;secondly is the policy recommendations,the first is to improve the credit policy,in the current China’s stage of economic development still need to implement differentiated credit policy; the second is to improve the social credit system; the third is innovative credit policy, strengthen the management of credit policy itself; the fourth is to improve the SME loan difficult condition;the fifth is to improve the effectiveness of China’s credit policy. The last is the research prospects of this paper.Through the analysis, we can drow the conclusions as follow:(1)In general, the impact of credit rationing on economic growth is positive. Under the conditions of the current development of China’s market structure and so on,a certain degree of credit rationing can smooth the volatility of economic growth,and make the monetary policy better play the role of promoting economic growth.(2) The existence of credit rationing maked both the loose and tight monetary policy work well since 1992.(3) The credit rationing is obvious in our country, and from 1992 to 1998, the Non-balanced Credit Ratio is obvious, and except of a increasing in 1998 to 2000,the degree has been dropping.(4)The credit channel of monetary policy is obvious,the financial accelerator effect is also obvious,but the existence of credit rationing inhibited this effect,but with reduction of the degree of credit rationing, the financial accelerator effect will become more prominent.Compared with the existing research,this paper mainly has these innovations: The first one,using a new method- dynamic stochastic general equilibrium-to study the effect that credit rationing takoing on economic growth effect. The second one, there are some technically improvement on mathematics. Heterogeneous producer were available and the new ways to express the degree of the credit rationing.