Risk Assessment Methods For Renewable Energy Systems And Their Applications

China, as the largest consumer for renewable energy in the planet, has taken the leading role in the hydropower, wind power, solar energy and biomass energy utilization. The Chinese government has enacted a series of goals and policies for renewable energy development, such as increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 15% by 2020 and 20% by 2030 reflected in our intended nationally determined contributions, to promote the transition to a low-carbon, green and climate-resilient economy. With the rapid development of renewable energy, China will play a critical role in combating global climate change, safeguarding energy security and protecting the environment, etc. However, as an emerging and climate-related industry, its development will be highly impacted by the climate conditions, the supporting policies and social acceptance, which may induce huge risks for renewable energy investment.In this way, this paper will discuss two aspects of the risks of renewable energy development. The risks from natural science are these risks caused by the natural climate factors in the utilization of renewable energy. The social risks, which can be refered to “the growth by nurture” or “policy- oriented”, include the policy risks and public perceived risks. This kind of risks can be called as investment risks, which are closely related to the investment in renewable energy industry. Especially, as a changeable market, the profits of renewable energy industry are closely linked to technology innovation, policy incentives, and the social acceptance of renewable energy technologies. Based on this defination, this research will firstly check the impact factors and development experiences of global renewable energy consumption by using panel data model, and analyze the vulnerability of renewable energy systems to climate change in China, then discuss how to enact the renewable portfolio standard policy in China to deal with the abandoned wind problem, and finally assess the social benefits of renewable energy development to avoid public perceived risks by application of numbers of models including operational research model, econometrics methods, game theory, multi-attribute decision making method and grey system theory, etc. The results could be helpful for the risk aversion and management of climate change on renewable energy development, the path selection of renewable energy utilization as well as the improvement on public understanding of renewable energy techonologies. Some innovative results are achieved as follows.(1) From the viewpoint of international comparison, this paper builds the model for impact factors of renewable energy development, and discusses the influencing mechanism of income level, social development process, energy security, energy consumption and carbon emissions. Our results indicate that income level has a significant role in promoting renewbale energy use while the change of traditional energy prices does not have an obvious effect on renewables. Also, the situation of energy security and climate change does not play their effective role in renewable energy utilization. The comprision between developing countries and developed countries concludes that the urbanization process has stimulated an unprecedented surge for renewable energy consumption and the stimulating effect of climate change is highlighted in developing countries.(2) According to the vulnerability research theory, we conduct vulnerability assessment for hydropower generation in China based on Grey Model with Ordinary Least Squares regression and model the regional vulnerability assessment of renewable energy system to climate change with the Vulnerability Scope Diagram by using a hybrid Grey Clustering and Decision-Making Model. The discipline of climate change vulnerability is an interdiscipline research field with the natural and social science and the vulnerability assessment of renewable energy system should keep pace with the times and adjust according to different types of technologies and local conditions. The vulnerability assessment of hydropower generation shows the importance of hydropower in our renewable energy mix and indicates that the increasing vulnerability of hydropower generation to climate change in China happens in the poorest regions in Southwest China with abundant hydropower resources. Also, the Southeast part of China, including Fujian and Guangdong, has a higher vulnerability score than the average level while the central part lower. Regional assessment of the whole renewable energy system points out the following results. Firstly, for adaptive capacity, the East part of China has a higher score than other regions because of its advanced education level, infrastructure, monitoring ability and economic development in dealing with climate change. Secondly, considering the exposure part, the cluster results are complex and varied due to the unique combination of natural factors, social factors and the energy structure. In terms of the sensitivity section, the results are presented on the distribution of areas rich in hydropower, wind power and solar energy potential. Moreover, the main results of this study are the higher renewable energy vulnerability of the poorer regions of China to climate change and the relative higher importance of adaptive capacity building in vulnerability management even though the vulnerability is constituted by adaptive capacity, exposure and sensitivity.(3) Four principles, including economic capability, resources potential, historical responsibility, and infrastructure construction level are introduced to the preliminary renewable quotas allocation by the Entropy Method. Based on this allocation and current planning for power grid construction, we build a Double-objective Transportation Problem with a cost-efficient and less vulnerable renewable electricity distribution system. This study considers regional renewbale energy development tasks into two stages, which refered to the basic task and the enhanced one. Furthermore, the absorptive capacity of the local power grid stability and channels building for renewable electricity export to other places is embodied in this allocation system. The results from Double-objective Transportation Problem reflect that the present power grid construction does not take the non-hydro renewable energy electricity into consideration. Policy implications include that China should promote green power dispatch, and give priority, in distribution and dispatching, to renewable power generation.(4) The conceptual models for the games and decision-makings are developed from the participation motivation and willingness of different players in renewable portfolio standards. The influences of China’s New Electric System Reforms on this game and decision-making models have been analyzed. It is also discussed that how to connect the renewable portfolio standards with the Feed-in tariff and carbon trading scheme from the perspective of Economic theory. We find that the key factors to determine the actions of these stakeholders are the costs and benefits during the achievement of renewable portfolio standards. The local government would like to pay more attention to the rewards or punishment in this policy while economic performance of renewables relative to these of tranditional fossil fuel electricity is considered by the transimission companies and electricity generation enterprises. The response process to RPS by power grid companies and the optimal quota percentages for electricity generation enterprises are given by our results.(5) Social benefits of renewable energy development are assessed from the energy security and energy poverty aspects. Scenarios analysis and Index Decomposition method are integrated to forecast the role of future renewable energy development in safeguarding energy security. Our results demonstrate that renewbale energy development has improved the energy poverty situation in these less-developed areas and the investment in rural renewable energy consumption may generate a dual benefit for the alleviation of energy poverty and economic poverty. Furthermore, when renewable energy development has its contribution in safeguarding energy security since 1993, its huge potential should be further boosted considering the current energy development plan.The Methodologies presented in this dissertation could provide theoretical analytical frameworks for risk management of renewable energy systems to climate change, the path selection of renewable energy development and the social benefit assessment of renewable energy consumption. Also, this research offers scientific evidences and new methods for China’s renewable energy development policies.