Study On Script Of The Earthquake Emergency Response Of County Governments And Comprehensive Assessment Of Regional Earthquake Emergency Response Ability

Counties are the basic and key layers of the earthquake emergency response (abbr. EER) work, of which abilities are directly related to the success or failure of the whole EER development of our country. In China, county's EER work is currently based on the earthquake contingency plan to take actions after earthquakes. But different county's plans are almost same, lack targeted nature and maneuverability. After the"5·12"Wenchuan earthquake, CSB has collected such many data that is urgent to sort and analyze, especially to generalize the similarity among EER actions of counties, which should be standardized and institutionalized for optimizing their future actions. On the other hand, the higher management layers, such as the country's and province's government, should give instructions and supports to EER ability construction of the basic layers, such as the counties of the Wenchuan disaster regions which only are the microcosm of two thousands counties of China. An objective assessment of current ability should firstly be taken up, so as to pick out weaker regions to be constructed preferentially. But many previous studies almost lay special emphasis on some specific regions, which do not fit the need of the macroscopic management layer.Based on the mentions above, in order to optimize the EER actions of counties and promote the EER ability of the whole country, this thesis, on the one hand, proposes the definition of the EER script of counties and systematically organizes the county EER actions of the Wenchuan disaster regions through this definition. The whole process and some regular patterns have been obtained respectively by deeply analyzing several typical cases and statistically analyzing the questionnaire. Then some shortcomings are pointed out and a draw-up thought of EER disposal plan according to certain supposed scene is brought up. On the other hand, this thesis firstly analyzes the definition of regional EER ability from the two layers of the absolute and relative EER ability and constructs the organization frame. Then taking Sichuan province for example, it constructs the evaluation index system of the absolute EER ability and the comprehensive assessment method of the two EER abilities. And then it determines the levels of EER ability construction. Finally, this work completes drawing a series of thematic maps.(A)Script of the earthquake emergency response of county governments1. EER script of county governments is defined as a conventional knowledge structure that county governments take unusual work programs to minimize the casualties and the losses during the period of EER. It is made up with five factors, that is,①The scene, such as destroy degree, natural environment, social environment ,technology ,characters and so on.②The main body that is the county government.③The countermeasures.④A series of actions that are arranged successively.⑤Several key time points or control points. EER actions can be sorted out fairly, comprehensively, and systemically in terms of this concept.2. The actions of a county government can be divided into ten countermeasures: commanding and coordination, information collection and report, rescue, medical relief and epidemic prevention, lifeline engineering repair, evacuation and temporary settlement, maintaining social stability and restoring public order, relief goods logistics, secondary disasters disposal and propaganda. They are a whole body in which each part is closely related to the others and will affect the efficiency and effect of the whole EER actions. Meanwhile, each action is a dynamic process, consisting of different contents in different stages.3. The combinations of all countermeasures show obvious segmentation features and some key times or control-points.(a)The EER script of counties with serious disasters can be divided into four stages: the stage of emergency initialization (the first three hours after the earthquake), the stage of rescue and emergency placement (twenty-four hours) , the stage of temporary placement and engineering repair(two to three days) and the accelerating stage of self-saving work (four to ten days). The start of self-saving work of mountainous counties is later than the plane ones, and lack of accelerating stage. And there exist several key time-points:●The first 3 hours after the earthquake that is the period of collecting information on initial disasters, clearing duty division and setting about to deploy the emergency and relief work. Then the emergency management goes into orbit.●24 hours is the time of ending rescue work , according to the law of life rescue from statistics.●48 hours is the time to carry out comprehensive epidemic prevention according to law of decomposing bodies from statistics.●72-90 hours is the time to complete massive concentrated search and rescue, which is based on the statistical time for life rescue rule.●Announcement on no big aftershocks in the future is the time to launch the necessary conditions of self-reliance.●The time of finishing the urgent repair of key lifeline engineering is necessary to speed up self-reliance work.●The time of completion to test individually buildings and building materials arriving are necessary to start transition to resettlement.(a)The EER script of extremely serious counties can be divided into four stages: the stage of emergency initialization (the first several hours after the earthquake), the stage of massive concentration of personnel rescue primarily stage (a few hours to 72 or more than 90 hours), the stage of emergency resettlement primarily stage (the third day to lots of aid supplies arriving) and the stage of epidemic prevention, engineering inspection and engineering rescue (end in startup of transitional stage). And there exist several key time-points:●72-90 hours is the time to end mass concentration search and rescue, which is based on the statistical time of life rescue rule.●48 hours is the time to carry out comprehensive epidemic prevention according to law of decomposing bodies statistical time. But if after the disaster medical personnel severity shortage, a lot of the wounded can't be transport, epidemic prevention has to postpone.●The arrival times of large aid teams and aid supplies from outside has obvious differences because of the different conditions of communications, transportation, publicity, outside attention, and foreign aid force scales after an earthquake.4.Combining the Wenchuan earthquake emergency disposal process in the serious areas, this study sets a serious destructive scene affected by earthquake disasters. From the angle of the different four stages, it clears disposal of the department, disposal content, need to disposal site, gradual goal and so on. Based on the situation of emergency disposal scheme assumptions, it proposes the working thoughts. In practical work, if based on a lot of the investigation and assessment work (based on seismic damage prediction), counties draw up such emergency disposal scheme by the above working thoughts, it will help to instruct counties'EER actions for the better.(B)Comprehensive assessment of regional earthquake emergency response ability1. The EER ability can be divided into two levels, so it is needed to assess the ability from two angles. The first level is to regard EER ability as a kind of regional self-function which is helpful to reduce the loss and harmful effect. The function is made up of natural, economic and social-cultural factors which have larger effecta on EER activities. This kind of EER ability is the main criteria while assessing implement effect of the factors. The second level, which is based on the first level, is the ability with repect to earthquake losses. On the condition of accurate risk assessment, this kind of EER ability will help high-level governments to grasp the most fragile counties of which EER ability must be improved firstly. In order to differentiate them, the former is named by absolute EER ability, while the latter called by relative EER ability.2. The construction frame of the influence factors of the absolute EER ability of counties can be built using AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) from the angle of system theory. The factors can be divided into one target layer, four rule layers which are the ability of environment, emergency resource ,social control, social basic cognition. These first-level factors can be subdivided into fifteen second-level factors.3. Taking Sichuan province for an example, the evaluation index system of its absolute EER ability can be constructed, which includes one target layer, three rule layers, nine factor layers and nineteen variable layers. This thesis puts forward the method of comprehensive assessments based on multifactor integration and principal component analysis to build up the comprehensive assessment model of the absolute and the relative abilities. The result shows that there is obvious difference in distribution patterns between the two abilities. The counties above the average level of the absolute ability are located in the west of the Sichuan Basin forming a zone, which is just the most developed region of Sichuan. This pattern corresponds to the contribution level of emergency resources reservation, geographical condition and education-cultural environment. However, it is facing the higher risk of earthquake disasters. These counties will become the fragile regions of EER ability. This thesis suggests that this assessment method is feasible.4. Taking respectively two levels of absolute and relative ability as "emergency or not" and "important or not" evaluation basis, the counties of Sichuan province can be divided into key and urgent construction counties (class I), key and a little urgent construction counties (class II), minor key construction but has some urgent counties (class III), and minor key construction and little urgent counties (class IV). From the first to the fourth class should be the construction force from big to small, from quick to slow, and gradually unfolded.5. Based on evaluation and analysis of the regional emergency capability in Sichuan, the most influential factors of Sichuan county's emergency capability are mainly the public self-rescue and mutual-aid ability, ensuring communications ability, the construction of emergency rescue team, emergency and first-aid materials reserve, transportation security and the perfect level of EER plan system, which should be the focused work of Sichuan county emergency ability construction.