Seismogenic Process Of Mathematical Physics Simulation And Its Application In Earthquake Prediction Research

Based on the objectivity of the group strong continental earthquakes,the basic characteristics andinteraction and influence among group earthquakes during the seismogenic process are deeply studiedby numerical simulation and rock failure experiment．Using the numerical simulation and rock failureexperimental results,the quality of seismic activity occurring in two typical seismic regions,namelythe Northern China and Chuandian region of Southwest of China are explained．At last,the cause andmechanism of precursory complexity is discussed preliminarily in the dissertation． The distribution of seismicity is inhogenous and unsteady in space and time respectively．Thespatial inhomogeneity of earthquakes is displayed with seismic belts and seismic regions and thetemporal unsteadiness of earthquakes is usually shown by the alternation of seismically active intervaland the quiescence in time domain．Analysis for many data shows that the strong continentalearthquakes are characterized by group events．The group activity of(strong earthquakes refers to thephenomena that strong quakes occurred in cluster within some time interval and mainly within not toolarge an area．Above characteristics are also called seismic group quality．Namely the earthquake ischaracterized not only by the individual but also by the group．Besides the seismicity in group ismutually influenced,making the development and occurrence of earthquake a complicated picture．Research suggests that there are two kinds of features of interactions between the strong earthquakes,i.e.to enhance (positive interaction) or reduce (negative interaction) the seismicity in another group.So called positive interaction means that occurrence of one earthquake can increase the earthquake riskin another area where earthquakes are in a state of development,thus advancing the occurrence ofanother large earthquake．Negative interaction means that occurrence of one strong earthquake willdecrease the risk of another seismogenic area and retard the time of occurrence of seismicity． At first,we model the successive progressive failure process of occurrence of earthquake in agiven rock sample with randomly distributed microscopic pre－existing heterogeneity(flaws)along anarrow soft zone by finite element simulative method and study the general characteristic of seismicity.Simulation of rock failure process is of help to understand the lock failure behavior.The simulationdemonstrated the basic characteristics during the development of earthquakes,for example,thephenomena of regional seismic activity reinforcement and quiescence,earthquake migration anddeformation localization prior to main shock．Especially the images of stress,strain and AE(micro－shock)distribution vs time given by the simulation recur to the mechanical physical pictures of all theseismic process．Besides,the simulative results conduce to understanding the precursory complexity.Seismostation localized in different tectonic position and different medium property shows distinctresponse to precurors．Therefore it can be seen that seismostation localized in the same region,though m山e cmst medium Is山e same or snnll％demon咖成es d江比rdd response to①口田s．Abcn Is possiMethat selsmostatlon shows diverse response to sress aithood It is localized m the same tectonic positionbut m veq different crust medium．At the same tune,the model also considers the interaction a！nong山e microjacufufe,"七Ich Is meaning凡ito understand山e precursor because山e result offliterlltraaionmny delny the occ。ence of selsmlcity of element that reaches to its ptUre srength or advance theocc。ence of selsmlclty of element that does not reach to its ptUre Strength．Reflecting m prec。soffIt m盯叩pear that there Is n nomalxw注no ev山叫吹e follows or e盯山叫毗e occllrted w讪o皿趴VanomalyPrlorto脚尬quakes．Besides,the...