Based On Ground Motion Parameters In Disaster Risk Analysis

In this thesis the development is firstly reviewed for seismic damage prediction, loss assessment and GIS application in earthquake risk analysis in the past few decades. Some key problems which need to be solved are pointed out. By now, seismic response of the soils has not been reflected sufficiently in earthquake loss assessment work in china.The research about site effects is summarized in the thesis. The site classification comparison between China and US code provisions has been carried out. The relationship between two site classifications has been found. So amplitude-dependent site amplification factors for China site classification has been gained by transformation from US amplification factors. Two amplification factors are specified: Fa for short periods and Fv for longer periods. On the contrast, there is only one long period factor and did not provide a short period factor in the current China code provision.To reflect the seismic ground motion characteristics for large and small earthquake, a new seismic ground motion parameters setup method is proposed in the thesis. At first, it needs to chose parameters to zone seismic ground motion. The zone parameters may be magnitude, distance or peak ground motion acceleration. Then compute the response spectra for rock site through attenuation. Next chose one or more representative spectra to represent the ground motion for each zone. At last, use site-dependent amplification factors, and get the site-dependent response spectra for different site conditions. Base on site classification and site-dependent amplification factors of China, the seismic ground motion parameters for different site conditions, magnitude and distance were computed in the thesis. These parameters have been compared with intensity scaled code spectra. The vulnerability matrix of two concrete frame buildings is calculated based on these parameters and intensity scaled code spectra. The comparison of vulnerability between two methods has been done.An earthquake risk analysis method based on seismic ground motion parameters for China has been developed in this thesis. The suggested method combines probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, vulnerability analysis and loss estimation. Earthquake can occur inside potential source. Each potential source is divided into many small areas. Then the mean location of each small area is computed. The magnitude range from background earthquake to upper limit is divided into several magnitude interval. So there is a series earthquake event of mean location and magnitude interval. The probability for each earthquake event can be computed from these seismicity parameters. Then based on the proposed seismic ground motion parameters setup method of this thesis, ground motion for a given building for each earthquake event can be calculated. Then damage state of building can be predicted through vulnerability matrix. Then based on relationship between damage state and loss, the direct economic loss can be computed. There are many possible events with different magnitude in the region of interest. At last, accumulate up contributions from all earthquake events in various potential sources affecting the given building. Similar to probability seismic hazard analyze, it is assumed that all events follow Poisson process with their annual rates, a loss curve can be obtained. The curve gives various possible economic losses corresponding to different exceedance probabilities. The curve can obviously be as an index to evaluate...