| Soft Ground subsidence differential settlement and slope instability affected the traffic safety and comfortable of Expressway. We forecast the settlement of soft ground used the back analysis method and ABAQUS finite element software, the introduction of non-probabilistic reliability theory to evaluate the reliability of predictions; Simultaneity we study the reliability of slope instability;the main works are as follows:1 Forecasting the settlement of soft ground used the back analysis method considering structural damnification of soft soil.2 Calculating and analyzing the settlement of soft ground used ABAQUS finite element software, introducing the non-probabilistic reliability theory to evaluate the reliability of predictionsËŠthus we find an new method of forecasting the settlement of soft ground.3 Using blind number theory to analyse the mechanical index of the soft ground, figuring out the Interval of parameter delegate, and comparing with the method calculating parameter based on <Specification for geotechnical investigation>, validating the rationality of the method.4 Using reliability model based on interval analysis to analyze reliability of soft soil subgrade settlement and combine with practical project. It proved that using non-probabilistic reliability model to analyze reliability is possible. Through the comparison of parameter change, it determined the sensitivity of settlement reliability index to different parameter.5 Using Mohr-Coulomb yield criterion, and coupling median safety factor based on reliability theory and finite element strength reduction method. Considering the effect to safety factors caused by elastic-plastic constitutive relation of soil and plastic strain, this paper analyze the soil strength plastic strain and displacement under the reduction condition, and proposed a method to judge soil slope stability failure based on plastic strain and displacement mutation.
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