The Combat Attrition Rate Of Multivariate Analysis And Prediction Methods

Study on the pattern of battle casualty in hi-tech local war, especially prediction of the loss due to noneffectives,is the important basis for our prediction of evacuation treatment in wartime,proper use of medical supplies.It is also the central sublect and one of the key contents of medical service scientific research.Prediction of the loss due to noneffectives is the central link of organization and command of medical service and important basis for working out plan of medical support. Usually it is done in the period before a battle.At the present time,major problems existing in the study on prediction of the loss for our army are: a) . there is no breakthough in methodology and qualitative analysis remains to be the main method. b) . study on prediction of battle casualties still lacks systematical first-hand data. c) . the work that has been done lacks systematicness. In order to suit the needs of medical support in hi-tech local war, we find this study essential.This paper mainly deals with the following two aspects:1. Analysis of the factors of battle casualtiesAfter fitting the statistic models and the quantitative analysis of factors influencing battle casualties, we get the following results :1). Battle casualty rate has positive relativity with battle days,negative relativity with the personnel strength of the our army,positive with the personnel strength of the enemy's, positive with the number of the enemy's artillery.2). Posture factors order from high to low according to positive relativity with battle casualties. the five forms of attack are: attack on enemies with fortified defence; with prepared defence; with hasty defence; pursuit and attack on delaying enemies. The five forms of defence are: prepared defence; fortified defence; delay; hasty defence withdrawal.3). The whole quality of the army has a great influence on the casualties. Fighting against enemies with better qualtity may cost us more while better quality of our army may attain fighting aim with less cost.4). Air superiority factor as well as command and control factor are qualitative comparative index. They show the comparative result of technology of the fighting sides. It has...