Temporal-Spatial Model And Risk Factor Evaluation For Tuberculosis

Migrant population, Drug-resistant tuberculosis and TB/HIV co-infection are three main challenges for tuberculosis control in worldwide. Especially, migrants are responsible for the huge number of drug-resistant tuberculosis and HIV/ADIS co-infecition. Based on huge field epidemiology data, the paper conducted a retrospective analysis to tuberculosis among the migrants in Beijing, and further investigated the influence of delay of diagnosis and theraphy on tuberculosis by spatial model, dynamical mathematical model and temporal spatial model. Furthermore, the paper predicted the trend of tuberculosis in China based on finding rate, delay rate, cure rate and drug-resistant rate.To our knowledge, such research was first time to confirm the distribution pattern of sputum positive tuberculosis and two hotspots areas in countrywide, the impact of migrant population on the tuberculosis in Beijing and the distribution pattern of tuberculosis and hotspots. In the dynamic model research, the migrant population was first incorporated into mathematical model as a separate unit and the big chanllege was the proof of stability of endemic equailibrium. The paper also detects the influence of delay rate, finding rate, drug-resistant rate and cure rate on the epidemiology of tuberculosis and predicts the number of tuberculosis cases in 2010 in nationwide. The analytical results indicated that migrant population was responsible for transmission of tuberculosis in worldwide and resulted in the huge number of drug-resistant tuberculosis cases.Our workâ‘ finished the theoretical analysis for the 8 dimension equation and got the threshold for the dying out of tuberculosis within population, which will push the crossing of the theoretical methods and tuberculosis .â‘¡will support to establish the effective tuberculosis control measures.â‘¢provided new thought and method to other infectious disease.The thesis includes seven chapters. The first chapter presents the current status of tuberculosis all over the world and the background of the temporal-spatial model which have been conducted to the tuberculosis study. The second chapter shows the data sources which have been used to investigate the transmission and distribution of tuberculosis. The third chapter detects the factors which effect tuberculosis and finds that migrant population plays an important role in the spread of tuberculosis as well as poverty. The fourth and fifth chapters begin to investigate the contribution of migrants to epidemic of tuberculosis. The spatial statistical analysis results indicate that the disease cluster at 18 district level among the migrant population. Migrants not only are associated with the epidemic of tuberculosis in Beijing, but also contribute to the differentia of tuberculosis between 18 districts. The theoretical analysis reveals that the long term behavior of tuberculosis is global asymptotic stability. The disease can be eradicated from population if the basic reproductive number of permanent residents and immigrants less than one, respectively. Otherwise, the disease persists in an endemic equilibrium. In the chapter six, we confirm the delay of diagnosis and treatment is positive associated with prevalence of tuberculosis as well as the resistant-drug do. However, we establish a model to predict the epidemic trend of tuberculosis of China and further estimate the case in 2010 in the final chapter.To our knowledge, to investigate a special disease using spatial-temporal model have not been reported in China. Our works fill the gaps of theoretical epidemiology of tuberculosis field in our country.