Feasibility Study On China's Peaceful Rise

Since the reform and opening, China's rapid economic growth caused the world's attention. Particularly, according to figures released by the World Bank in 2010, China's economy has increased by the 29th of the world to second of the world, the rise of China seems to have become a reality.However, surrounding the rise of China, community on the international there has been two different views:the "China threat theory "and"China collapse theory. " From the former view, the rise of China must break the existing world situation. China is bound to challenge the hegemony of the United States to break the existing world order. The main basis is the path of all the major modern rised countries. "China collapse theory " argued that China's rapid development is the development of a restorative, and the development is to increase by investment. Therefore, China's development can not be sustained. In particular, the rapid development wil stimulate various social contradictions, these contradictions will eventually lead China to rapid collapse.In this paper, I made a point of view on the basis of criticism of the analysis of these two points,that China's peaceful rise is entirely possible. This view is not my first, but to make it popular, I must criticaly analysis the "China threat theory "and"China collapse theory " in-depthly. After all, these two viewpoints are present in domestic and international markets.This paper is divided into five chapters.,in addition to the introduction and epilogue, The introduction permits the meaning of paper, analyzing the paper's structure and innovation.The Chapter I, Myths and Realities:the origin and evolution of " China threat"The term "China threat", it is a kind of publicity which is popular in western primarily, which arguments that China will be seen to be a serious disaster and threats to the existing international society, the international system and international order all which based on the western civilization in the future. The reason is that some people in the west see the following facts that China's rapid economic development, China's strength enhancing, the differences of Chinese civilization and its mode of "modernization" from the western countries.So, what are the basis of the so-called "China threat" in its content and theory? Generally Speaking, there are three main aspects of content in "China threat" theory, which are named "China economic threat theory", "China's military threat" and "China civilization threat"; The basis is various, it mainly comes from these prejudice and hostility in some western people to China's existing political system, ideology and culture. Besides, it's also comes from some of the western theories of international relations theory and hypotheses. Basically, the "China threat" reflects various prejudices under the "western centralism" to other civilizations, country, culture and development model. In some extent, its also reflects the history of western invaded China, the fears and anxieties mentality in the face of China's rise today.In this chapter, we will analysis of the " China threat" in a detailed from two aspects: Firstly, the analysis and criticism will from the most rhetoric international relations theory and emphasis is realism theory part, especially come from "power transfer theory" and "offensive realism theory".Secondly, use the "Democratic Peace Theory" to analysis the "China threat theory." These analysis makes "China threat" more deceptively, especially in academic and political space.The Chapter II, The criticism of the"China threat" theory.First, in all the Western international relations theory, the reality theory is the origin and the main basis of the "China threat" theory,which is most likely to interprete China's rapid economic development as a "threat". Realism takes the rise of the United States as a frame of reference to China's rise which is wrong. The most important thing is that the rise of China's external and internal conditions are quite different from the United States.Therefore, the theory can not be real "China threat theory" basis. This chapter the theory of offensive realism analyzes the "China threat" theory from the perspective of the Western international relations theory. Moreover, from the historical experience of past and current problems facing the Chinese perspective of reality, we can clearly find that the so-called "China threat" theory is untenable.Second, from a military point of view, there is a huge gap between China and American, China will not take the initiative to challenge the United States. China's defense modernization goal is clear:to defend the territorial integrity and national sovereignty. From an economic point of view, so far, China's economic development does not constitute a threat to any economy of the world. On the contrary, the performance of the global financial crisis proved that China has actually served as the engine of world economic growth. From the perspective of civilization, Chinese civilization and other civilizations are an important part of the world's cultural resources.Through analysis, we can clearly find that, the "China threat theory"is more of an inference, a guess, a hypothesis, there is no historical inevitability and logical necessity.The Chapter III. the possibility and approach of "China's peaceful raise":A strategic analysis in the political backgroundFrom the seclusion of Qing dynasty to the "world trade country" currently, the fact shows that China's development could not back to the traditional way as it have done in the past. It is obvious truth that China's development must be in the process of world' development. Besides, the "theme of age" today is also determining the "peaceful rise" is not only the China's active strategic orientation on its development way, but also the inevitable choice under the international political background currently.Starting from the international political background, we can clearly found that there are the following two important influences in the "peaceful rise of China" still need to face. One is the international background of China's rise today; Another is the geopolitics and regional barriers in "rise of China". The former is the positive factors in the "peaceful rise of China", the latter the process of peaceful rise of China constitute a restriction in some extent. The latter constitute a restriction in the process of "peaceful rise of China" in some extent.Specifically, for the new the international political background upper the "rise of China", If there's any different similarities between "rise of China" in age of Post-cold war and "western powers rise" in history, We can find the typical two characteristics that the "peaceful features" in "rise of China" and the sustainability in the process of the China's development road, which is the realization of "peaceful rise of China". Its reason mainly includes three aspects:"Peace and development" has become a consensus in the world today; The institutional hegemony of USA offered some emerging countries an opportunity of "peaceful rise" by actively participates in the international system; The rising of "Knowledge economy" not only provided a safeguard for China's sustained economic development,but also the historical opportunity of "peaceful rise of China".As for the second part, there are mainly including three aspects:China solve territorial dispute in its regional integration process; The sea power is the important factors affect China's rise; The Taiwan Issue:a comprehensive strategic problem involving "rise of China". This paper argues that, first of all, insist on the current "shelve disputes, joint development" policy will help reduce the resistance of the process of "peaceful rise of China". Secondly, the development of the sea power for China's own development right also is helpful for maintaining the free market economy trade system of the world, which is consistent with the interests of the United States. In addition, bilateral trade and economic interests between China and USA is mutual infiltration of co-existence and co-prosperity coexistence, China's economic interests damaged also means the U.S. economy benefit is damaged too, so the United States has no reason to contain China's efforts seek to improving its sea power, and it also completely would not damage the international image of "peaceful rise of China". Finally, the resolution of the Taiwan Issue will determine the success or failure of the rise of China, which is a strategic problem involving China's rise global as well. To complete solution to the Taiwan Issue, China must based on its own development, improve the comprehensive national strength firstly; The second thing is to strengthen the exchanges and cooperation with Taiwan. Just follow these two conditions above, we can believe that Taiwan Issue will be getting perfectly solved sooner or later.The ChapterⅣ, "China collapse "and China's economic and social contradictions and problems faced currentlyThe term of "China collapse" is a arguments hold by some western people who claimed that China suffered a serious economic, social and political insurmountable contradictions and problems in the development of economy, and they predicted that China will go to "collapse" in a few years. In essence, as the same "China threat",these all are the wrong judgment and prediction based on the current and future development of China, a highly not adaptive reaction comes from "China's peaceful rise". To some extent, it is also a kind of ulterior motives attacks and slander to China in western countries under the condition of some political need.There are varieties of causes in "China collapse":the invalid of "China Threat", the influence of western centralism, the blink of cold war thinking, distort to China's development under the political needs, all of which are the primary sources of its produced.On the other hand, there are many contradictions and problems in the process of China's economic and social development and these contradictions and problems of the development of China have played a significant negative obstacles role. These contradictions and problems are divided into two major categories, One is structural contradiction, which mainly including:The contradiction between government and market; the contradiction between Consumption, investment and export of conflict; the extensive style of economic growth and the contradiction; resources and the environment; the contradiction between Urban and rural dual system structural. Another is the contradictions in the system, which mainly including:corruption and lack of rule of law. In influence of structural contradictions and institutional issues, the problem of people's livelihood is serious, Such as housing, education, medical treatment, etc have directly affect people and become one of the major issues of life.The ChapterⅤ, The criticism of " China collapse"The theory of "China collapse" is unreasonable and the basic reason is that it's totally ignore the great development of China's economic and social reality, only to focusing on some contradictions and problems——all of them are often exaggerated by western——in China's economic and social development in order to judge the fundamental conditions of China and take some fault prediction for the future of China. Obviously, this bias, not comprehensive method, turned upside down on the correct understanding of China's economy and society. In essence, as the same "China threat",the ultimate goal is the worsen China international environment, delay the development of China and contain China in its process of peaceful rise.Of course, although some contradictions and problems mentioned by "China collapse" scholars are objectively exists, many problems are produced the process of development in China, which is also inevitably produces in the modernization of China. We should hold a dialectical view of the problems of China's economy and society and think about China's rise from a long-term perspective and global perspectives. Many conflicts and problems produced in China's economic and social development currently have some staged characteristics, which is inevitable in the process of "rise of China". Therefore, we should look at these problems with the development vision, to solve them in the course of development.In fact, since the policy of China's reform and opening up was implementing over more than thirty years, so many great achievements China has won have been proclaimed that "China collapse" failure. Although there are still some conflicts and problems, China's reform and opening-up and modernization has made great achievement. Today, China already has the solutions to these problems, which including physical and institutional foundation:huge material economic scale, the population and the market, technology innovation, the establishment of the socialist market economy and perfect, centralized system of political stability and economic development. Moreover, the rise of China has a huge advantage:high capital formation rate, education and rich human capital and technology innovation strength, all of these are the power and resource of the rise of China. Overall, the problems existing in China in the present stage already have the necessary conditions to solve based on the facts below:build and improvement in China's market economy system will promote the reform of China's political system, changing the style of economic growth is becoming a very urgent problem and huge resources will be the foundation to improve the problem of people's livelihood.In conclusion, today China has groping to a suitable for China's national conditions gradual reform road, which has already proved a success in the past thirty years. Facts prove that China will be able to break the " China collapse " rumor and to rise smoothly as long as we firmly according to gradual reform policy determined in thirty years ago, one step a footprint, not be moved, not negligent, don't toss unswervingly walk its road.