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Research On Scenario Deduction Model Of Unconventional Emergency And Its Application Based On Graphical Evaluation Review Technique Network

Posted on:2012-08-15Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:B H YangFull Text:PDF
GTID:1116330362466702Subject:Management Science and Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Unconventional emergencies always involve large number of people's securities as well astremendous economic and social cost, and it is out of the physical experiment's capacity. This fact andthe inherent characteristics of their occurrence and development, which are unpredictability,complicated evolution, and extensive influence, require not only the badly need of changing thetraditional "Predict-Answer" pattern to the "Scenario-Answer" pattern, but more a method totransform their qualitative cognition into quantity computation.This paper is based on the Incubation Program of unconventional emergency management,which is Research on the scenario deduction and computation of unconventional emergency based onGERTS artificial network. Using the existed research achievement for reference, we integrated thequantitative analysis with case study and researched on the establishment of the induction networkunder the unconventional emergency scenario. Meanwhile, we studied on the coupling mode betweenevents during evolution, the optimized deposition of emergency hedge resources, the build up ofscenario deduction artificial network and so forth, in order to provide solid theory reference toemergency auxiliary decisions. The main achievements of the paper include:First, the establishment of the scenario deduction network of unconventional emergencies basedon stochastic network. After summarizing and analyzing of its deduction characteristics, we broughtabout the description principle of the scenario deduction network based on stochastic network,designed a basic structure of scenario deduction GAN Network, researched on the transformingmethod from GAN Network to GERT Network, and provided the solving method. Further more, weextended the artificial GERTS network and the functions of network nodes. The research has offeredan experimental platform for the scenario deduction of unconventional emergencies.Second, the introduction and establishment of scenario deduction coupling model ofunconventional emergency based on stochastic network. Through the analysis of functioning modeamong the unconventional emergency events, we invented the concepts of Co-coupling, Intercoupling,and drives coupling. Integrating with the characteristics of stochastic network, we designed andadded the logic structures of different couplings, established the corresponding scenario evolutionmodels and computed the optimization method to solve out the parameters. This research hasprovided a quantitative method the coupling of unconventional emergencies.Third, the establishment an optimization model of GERT network-based emergency resource allocation under unconventional events during the rescue. Comprehensively considering the evolutionof the disaster itself and its interactions with the outside world, an emergency rescue GERT networkwas presented, and the maximum entropy model was designed to solve the transfer probability of theurgent state under different resources disposition. On the above basis, we revealed the simplificationproperty of the GERT network and put forward the algorithm for the optimum resource allocation.This research has supplied an qualitative and quantitative analysis frame and tool for emergencyresource allocation.Fourth, the construction of a stochastic network model based on uncertain parameters and themodel's solving algorithm. The scenario deduction of unconventional emergency possesses greatuncertainty, hence a mature GERT network model with certain parameter distribution is no longeradaptive. To solve this problem, we brought about a new GERT network model with uncertainparameter information, studied the formation of moment function in this network, and conducted adeep research into its property. An artificial algorithm of GERT network with uncertain informationwas then studied which was grounded on signal flow chart principle.Ultimately, the establishment of scenario deduction systems of the earthquake geneticengineering based on stochastic network. Using the scenario deduction of earthquakes casualties asbackground and considering the uncertainties of the deduction, we applied the constructed scenariodeduction GERT network, the coupling model during the deduction, as well as the optimizationallocation of emergency resources in the scenario deduction of earthquake genetic engineering.Afterwards, an executable computer language of the above models was set up in Microsoft VisualStudio2005environment, and an scenario deduction system of earthquake genetic engineering wasdeveloped. This system could be an available tool for further research and application.
Keywords/Search Tags:Unconventional emergency, Scenario deduction, GERT network, Co-coupling, Resourcedisposition, Life project
PDF Full Text Request
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