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Theoretical And Methodological Studies On The Demand And Supply Of Inland Water Transportation

Posted on:2005-10-22Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:H Y JiangFull Text:PDF
GTID:1116360125463676Subject:Ships and marine structures, design of manufacturing
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Inland water transport is the important component in the comprehensive transport network, and it is doing enormous contribution for social economic development unhonoredly all the time. Compared with other transportation ways, inland water transport development lags behind, and its economic research work is weaker. Under the market economic system, the key question of inland water transport is demand and supply. This text carries on deeply research to the theory and method of the supply and demand of inland water transport, in order to perfect theoretical system of economy and management of transportation, improve the market competitiveness of inland water transport, and adapt to national economic and social development better. The research has very important theory and realistic meaning.The thesis uses the economics theory and research results made of relevant discipline to study the theory and method of the inland water transport's demand, supply and balance from the systematic angle. The thesis is made of two major parts mainly.The part of inland water transport demand describe essential feature and rule of development of the demand of the inland water transport in terms of demand for national economy, and put forward the view of putting the inland water transport demand into the comprehensive traffic system to study the inland water transport. The factor that influences the way choice of the demander has been studied in the requirement forecasting of inland water transport for the first time. An improved transportation way pluralism share model has been put forward after considering the background that other transportation ways share. Carry on deep analysis and study about the requirement forecasting theory and method of inland water transport: Putting forward the level and smooth law of index which is adjusted, which improve the precision of predicting; Using neural network model carry on comprehensive traffic many goal predict of inland water transport demand and leading into the Chaos theory to predict the inland traffic flow for the first time; Putting forwardcombination predict model of the inland water transport demand and setting up linearity and nonlinearity line combination predict model for the first time, and their accuracy have been proved with the real example ; Predicting the exchanging amount of port of the Changjiang River for the first time after carrying on research to the exchanging amount of port.The part of inland water transport supply expound the composition of inland water transport supply from the angle of the system, put forward levels development goal of the inland water transport. Use the production function model to ration describe the broad sense supply of the inland transportation system, and set up the dynamic production function model of the broad sense supply of the inland transportation system for the first time; Set up evaluation index system of the inland water transport supply, use improved entropy proportion means and combined evaluation means to appraise the inland water transport supply for the first time, and use the DEA theory to appraise the efficiency of the inland water transport supply at the same time ; Study the theory of the equilibrium of supply and demand of inland water transport, set up the basic equation of the balance of the supply and demand of inland water transport, and research the index of the freight rate and the index of prosperous degree separately which are applied in the equilibrium of supply and demand of the inland water transport, set up the model of the monitoring and early warning system about the prosperity of the inland water transport for the first time; Finally, put forward the development strategy of inland shipping on the basic of SWOT analysis and rational orientation of inland water transport.
Keywords/Search Tags:Inland water transport demand, broad sense supply, balance, the theory, the method
PDF Full Text Request
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