International Capital Flows In Emerging Market Countries: The Fluctuations And The Flow Of The Decision

The experience from recent crises tell us that international capital flows which flee from the crisis countries can do great damages to these countries' economic development and financial security. Thus, volatility of Emerging Countries(EMC)' capital flows has attracted more and more researchers' attention, and these researchers have founded a lot of theoretical and empirical analysis. What's more, this kind of volatility of international capital flows exists not only in financial crisis, but also in every time of capital flows, which means volatility of international capital flows has its instinct reasons. This paper analyzes volatility situation of current international capital flows and its reasons at first. Secondly, it analyzes the effects of EMC international capital flows and its volatility on EMC economic growth. At last, it empirically analyzes the determinants of EMC international capital flows.Section 1 is prologue of this paper.Section 2 is to analyze volatility situation of current international capital flows and its dynamic process. Firstly this section discusses volatility situation of current international capital flows of EMC and stability of EMC FDI; then from the crisis case of Malaysia this section analyzes the stability of EMC FDI more deeply; Lastly this section analyzes dynamic process of international capital flows quota among emerging countries and developed countries.Section 3 focuses on the micro-basis of direct and indirect investment capital flows' volatility. Firstly this section analyses the micro-conduct basis of FDI investor and applies its conclusion to the empirical analysis of the reality of EMC FDI capital flows; then theoretically analyzes the international investors' choice between FDI and FPI; lastly from the perspective of multiple-equilibrium's existence or not, this section analyzes the reasons that FDI capital flows are more stable than FPI capital flows.Section 4 focuses on the effects of financial market on EMC international capital flows, including investors' behavior in emerging security market, herding behavior, financial fragility and contagion.Section 5 analyzes the macro-factors that affect EMC international capital flows. Firstly this section analyzes some factors' effects on international bond capital flows, such as interest rate, exchange rate, currency dollarization, taxes and control of capital account. Then this section provides a new model about the mechanism of changes ofpolitical risk on international capital flows and applies this model to EMCs. Lastly this section analyzes country risk's effects on EMC international capital flows and empirically tests the relationship between country risk and EMC international capital flows.Section 6 provides some theoretical and empirical analysis about the effects of EMC international capital flows and its volatility on economic growth.Section 7 analyzes the direction determinants of EMC international capital flows, combined theoretical methods and empirical methods. Firstly this section focuses on the opinion that "economic growth determines capital flows" empirically. Then this section analyzes theoretically and tests empirically EMC average capita national income's effects on EMC international capital flows. Lastly, in order to explain the determinants of EMC international capital flows more deeply, this section empirically analyzes the effects of sovereign default risk on EMC international capital flows.