The Research On The Risk Management Of International Exploration And Development Projects In Oil And Gas

With severe shortage of domestic resources and petroleum importing increasing annually, China is faced with oil and gas safety problem. In order to realize the multi-import of oil and gas for safety, developing overseas oil and gas resources will be the strongpoint for Chinese Oil Company. Chinese international exploration and development projects in oil and gas field are at the initial phase. Compared with domestic exploration and development situation, the international one has many special characters, such as high general risk, long investment recycle time, high uncertainty, great regional risk and political risk and so on. Its success not only depends on technology, capital, management level but also risk management. So the research on international exploration and development project risk management (IEDPRM) play an very important role in oil and gas practice for Chinese oil project as well as other foreign oil company.As a branch of project risk management, international investment project risk management in oil and gas exploration and development refers to the science process which different risks can be identified, scaled, appraised and treated in time by the project main body, so that the safety of the project could be protected to realize the prospective income, as well as preventing the economic benefit of company and country from loss. It includes four periods that is identification and analysis, pre-management of project prophase, monitoring of project metaphase and post-evaluation of risk management.The paper regards the international exploration and development project of oil and gas as its research object and uses the other's result for reference. On the basis of the theories about risk analysis and management, engineering project management, exploration and development of oil and gas field, the paper analyzes the possible risk that could be met during the operation of the project as well as its characters so that the management objects are determined, including frequent and permanent object and temporary object. At the same time, the risk management principle combined qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis along with its contents and process are also selected. In order to develop the risk management efficiency, the paper divided the international exploration and development project risk into two categories, the risk based on objective events and the risk arising from principle part behavior, according to the relationship between risk and principle part behavior. The new standard of IEDP risk classification and the concepts for principle part behavior risk and objective event risk, which strengthen the effects that people behavior exerts on project risk and management difference of risks, are pointed out in the paper in favor of pertinence riskmanagement. Based on the basic risk identification, the comprehensive identification method of IEDPRM integrated risk factor pre-analysis with environment analysis and questionnaire method is set up. The structure of risk factors that affect the performance of IEDPR and bound relationship among the factors are clear through setting up the explanation structure model of risk factor. In addition to the general risk analysis such as project risk rating and multi-factor grading, the Game theory and nerve network appraisal etc. are introduced to the analysis of IEDPRM. The qualitative and the quantitative description about various risks and the estimation on the loss arising from the risks and the probability of risk occurrence are performed and the key risk factor is found out according to prioritizing general risk effect so that the risk identification and analysis method about IEDPRM is appeared.The paper proposes a new risk management theory and method in the prophase and metaphase of IEDPRM, breaking through the ideas that the risk evaluation is more important than risk management.1.The risk pre-management at the initial phase of project is consists of objective event risk pre-management and principle part behavior risk pre-management. The objective even...