Research On The Industrial Analysis Method And The Default Risk Warning Model Of Listed Company In China

With the development of the securities market in China to a normative operations model, regarding security investment, investors and investment institution focused on speculative psychology, but have transferred to analysis on intrinsic investment value of security. So, it is the most important problem facing investors at present that how to analyze so many listed companies generally and how to select stocks to invest. To make a study on intrinsic investment value of security comprehensively and scientifically, on the basis of analysis on limits about present research methods of investment value of security, this paper have made a frame of integrated evaluation system about industry investment value of listed company. At the same time, on the basis of analysis on the concrete situation about default risk of the securities market in China, the default risk-warning model is presented in this paper. On the basis of the above, this paper makes a study on investment value of listed company from the industry of listed company and its default risk. And this paper makes a study on default risk of futures market in China.In the frame of integrated evaluation system about industry investment value of listed company, it presents an analysis method of constitutive relation about industrial investment value of listed company, and further researches into such value from its industry. The constitutive relation method takes account of all effects of the industry environment from macro to micro, as well as combines qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis. In addition, this paper has applied fuzzy mathematics to analysis and evaluation on industrial investment value of listed company. Also, validity of the evaluation frame is verified by comparison between results from empirical analysis and evaluation of investment value in real estate and its actual performance. Furthermore, according to the default condition in Chinese listed company, this paper introduces the concept of default risk into research on investment value of listed company and consequently achieves a default risk-warning model of listed company, which is so far an innovative idea. According to information about stock price of listed company from Wind consultative system, volatility of stock return of listed company can be estimated through multivariate GARCH—M model, so the default probability of listed company can be attained by employing the evaluating model in this paper. Then, considering such probability as the sample data, critical of the default probability and its confidence interval can be achieved by employing non-parameter OS in statistics. Further, this critical, as a criterion, is compared with the default probability calculated, and accordingly this paper gains information about poor-behaved listed company and even ST listed company by looking into their investment value from default probability. Thus the default risk-warning model of listed company can be a default risk early warning system for listed company. To sum up, according to the default risk-warning model of listed company, some significant and valuable conclusions have been achieved by empirically investigating into investment value of the listed company in Chinese security market from their default risk. In the end, the default risk model of listed company is generalized into research on default situations in futures market, and sequentially get the default risk warning model in futures market with its own feature and property, which is furthermore applied into the empirical study of the default phenomenon of "the long parties quitting delivering" about WT0309 in Zhengzhou commodity exchange and its analysis result is a close correspondence with the actual market situation.