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Power Generator's Cost Analysis And Market Competition Strategies

Posted on:2006-08-15Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:X D ZhangFull Text:PDF
GTID:1116360152483132Subject:Thermal Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
These days, Electricity markets oriented reform has become nonreversible trend for power industry in china as well as all around the world. The determinant factors for a generator's profit will be cost of generation, market status and bidding strategies of competition. Research work in this paper include coal-fueled thermal power system performance evaluation, production costs analysis, bidding strategies and spot market simulation with background of market competition. Traditional accountant costs analysis could not provide enough and reasonable information for generators to participate in market competition. Dynamic cost function based on resources consumption characteristics play an important role for bidding. Average and marginal costs characteristics of unit are studied, they determine a lower limit curve for feasible bidding area. When only a small portion of output is competitive, zero profit prices for this electricity is average marginal cost. In fact, the least bidding price will be marginal costs correspondingly. Curve fitting problems are also discussed assumed linear marginal cost function. Thermoeconomic method analyze system performance by apply cost concept to thermal power process. It is suitable to treat energy transfer and conversion processes as commodity production process under this method. Cost analysis techniques adopt thermoeconomic structure theory is studied. These techniques are suitable to be employed on-line and are promising for cost calculation and performance evaluation. Especially for combined heat and power (CHP) system, thermoeconomic method lead to reasonable results. A production structure model of CHP system is developed, production characteristics as well as substitution characteristics of the two outputs are studied with this model. For power generation firms' decision, price forecasting could provide important information. Some firms' bidding strategies even based on price forecasting. Although forecasting techniques developing fast, incertitude will always be there. A strategic bidding model adopted two-player zero sum game's mixed-strategies and statistical mechanism is built. Some scenarios from this model are studied by simulation with some real market data. Results of profit, venture and lost possibility are analyzed. For price bidding on the high side will result in stop of unit, sometimes price bidding on the low side will result in much less expense and risk. If start-stop expense is not paid in addition, the simulation show that even with pay as you bid mechanism, somewhat play down bidding price could slightly produce more profit. But electricity markets are monopolistic competition markets, generators' bidding strategies usually are how to raise market clear price to make more profit. A general reaction function is developed according to n-player no cooperation game theory and assume that market adopted closed bid first price uniform auction, accept linear, monotone nondecreasing supply curves. Three particular bidding strategies are contrived according to different amount of information a firm could get from the market. The first scheme estimate each rivals strategies; the second scheme assumes every rival use just the same strategies and the third scheme treat all rivals as a single rival. The case study shows that the third scheme is good in stability and easy to carry out. The second scheme is simplest and useable too. Supply function equilibrium (SFE) model is employed by some researchers in electricity market simulation. Some models assume zero-intercept linear marginal cost curve and produce simple and reasonable result. A spot market simulation model is developed with positive-intercept linear marginal cost curve hypothesis. The methods for transformation from positive-intercept model to zero-intercept model and vice versa are contrived. On the assumption of technique uniform and without consideration of transmission limitation, case study show that if a firm's scale is large, competitive firms' proportion is small and demand elasticity is...
Keywords/Search Tags:Electricity market, Marginal cost, thermoeconomics, Strategic bidding, Supply function equilibrium
PDF Full Text Request
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