The Effects Of Monetary Policy On The Investment Of Hi-tech Listed Companies

To develop the new and hi-tech industry is an important strategy of our economic development. We are building the GEM actively to promote the development of hi-tech enterprises (mainly the medium and small size). The hi-tech enterprises are the most active factors of Chinese economy growth; to support them with financial aid is to provide new impetus for the continuable development of Chinese economy. After making a detailed analysis of the characteristics of the Chinese monetary policy and the hi-tech listed companies, this dissertation researches into the chief part of monetary policy transmission to the investment of the hi-tech listed companies, that is the relationship between monetary policy and the securities business. The relationship between them is proved significant, and it shows that the securities market has already affected the monetary demand. The finding is of enlighten significance for the study on the effects of Chinese monetary policy on the investment of hi-tech listed companies. Based on the above, the following researches are done: (1)The relationship between monetary policy and the investment of the hi-tech listed companies is analyzed with Tobin's Q theory, and the proposals of credit policy on promoting the investment and growth of hi-tech listed companies are put forward. The regression model of the Tobin's Q and the leverage and the growth of hi-tech listed companies is set up, then the suggestion of credit policy is obtained. The suggestion is as follows, for the hi-tech companies whose Tobin's Q are more than one, the commercial banks should satisfy their loan demand to improve their investment and growth; if the hi-tech companies' Tobin's Q are less than one, their funds should be gotten from other channels. (2)The monetary policies are divided into discrete variable and continuous variable, and their effects on investment of the hi-tech listed companies are analyzed. The regression method is used to confirm the strength and the complex index weight of continuous monetary policies, and the X-11method is used to eliminate the effects of seasonal factors, and then new time sequences are gotten, which are regressed. The result shows that the newly added investment is from the loan of commercial banks, and that the monetary policies and investment of hi-tech listed companies are positively (but a little weak) correlated. For the discrete monetary policies, the method of distinguishing the fluctuating points of time sequences by Miller and Wichern is employed to figure out the important discrete monetary policy events, and then this dissertation uses the event study method to analyze the effect of discrete monetary policy on the investment of hi-tech listed companies. The finding shows the effect is significant and the reaction of the investment of hi-tech listed companies to monetary policy is obviously ahead of the announcements. In addition, it implies that a part of the capital of the hi-tech listed companies is not invested into industry but into the stock market. (3)The GMM-estimation procedure proposed by Arellano and Bond (the two-step difference method) is used to study the effects of the monetary policy on the investment of the hi-tech listed companies through financial accelerator. The financial accelerator implies that weak balance sheets can amplify monetary policy shocks and have a negative effect on firm investment spending. When the data of the representatives of all companies is used to estimate, the result shows the effect of financial accelerator is weak. However, if the firms are classified by size, the strength of the financial accelerator across firm size classes and asymmetric effects over the business cycle are proved significant. The result shows that a stronger financial accelerator influences the small companies, and the effect is stronger inside downturns than outside downturns. During downturns, the investment of firms with weak balance sheets is more strongly influenced by the mechanism of financial accelerator. Finally, this dissertation researches o...