The Study On China Nature Gas Sustainable Development Strategy

This paper, from the view of development of natural gas market demand in China, probes into key issues restraining the development of domestic natural gas industry, including resource base, development potentiality and development strategy, thus providing basis for establishing development strategies of natural gas industry. The following understanding is gained: 1. It is determined that the natural gas exploration of China has entered the rapid increase stage of reserves, large breakthroughs of gas exploration will be made continuously in the near future, and the rapid increase tendency of reserves will be maintained during the future 20 ~ 30 years; 2. By taking advantage of Weng's cyclic theory, we predicate that the peak increase period of natural gas reserves in China will be witnessed before the year 2040, the ultimate rate of proved natural gas resources will be 40% ~ 50%, and, according to present understanding level, the recoverable natural gas resources are about 12×1012m3. 3. It is predicated that, in 2020, the natural gas yield will arrive at 970 ~ 1,200×108 m3. Meanwhile, the CBM productivity will reach 100×108m3 in the same year, which can be supplemental to the conventional natural gas yield. The local natural gas yield could meet 55 ~ 67% of the nationwide demand. 4. In 2020, the yields of Sichuan, Ordos, Tarim, Junggar, and South China Sea Basin each will exceed 60×108 m3; the natural gas resources of these 6 basins are 286,877×108 m3, accounting for 75.3% of the nationwide figure. These 6 basins are the core regions of natural gas industry in China. 5. In view of the development tendency of natural gas demand in China, the gas demand will, in a long period, exceed the local gas productivity. In 2010, the demand will be (1,000 ~ 1,100)×108 m3, and, in 2020, the figure will be 2,200×108 m3. It is forecast that the Chinese gas will ultimately occupy about 10% in the consumption composition of primary energy. 6. The adjacent countries of China enjoy quite abundant natural gas resources. Russia and Central Asia becomes one source of natural gas, and the landway connection should be primarily used for importing pipelined gas; and the Southeast Asia and Australia is another source of natural gas, which should be primarily imported in the form of LNG. 7. The natural gas utilization and development strategy of China should stress the harmonious development of both upstream and downstream and the progressive balance between supply and demand, taking local resources as the backbone and overseas resources as supplement, so as to assure the state security and maximize the economic effectiveness. In order to guarantee the long-term stable gas supply, it is necessary to strengthen the utilization of offshore and overseas resources, and to prepare advance study on natural gas hydrates.