A Experimental Study On Individual Choice Under Uncertainty

A lively controversy came after a symposium in Paris in 1952, where the laureate of 1988 Nobel Economic Prize, French Scholar Maurice Allais presented two papers to criticize the descriptive power of theory of expected utility, as now known as " Allais' Paradox " .As for the reason of "Allais' Paradox" , psychologist Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky give a psychological one. They said: "People generally underweight outcomes that are merely probable in comparison with outcomes that are obtained with certainty. This tendency called the certainty effect, contribute to risk aversion choices involving sure gain. In addition, they discard components that are shared by all prospects under consideration. This tendency caked the isolation effect, contribute to overweight the low probabilities when the choices all involve the probable gain. " But as Marxism materialist, We try to probe the reason into the objective gifts owned by decision-maker. The impersonality decides the subjectivity after all.At the same time, since the western experimental economics has been encountering the homogeneous criticism. We draw the samples from the old five city zone of HANGZHOU randomly in term of statistical principle. On the earth, only the conclusion from the random samples can generalize to collectivity.The paper divided into six parts. Chapter one was a scan over western experimental economics and their study on individual choice under uncertainty. Chapter two discussed our experimental study. Chapter three was one-factor analysis of variance to find out whether and how the gifts affected the preference reverse. Chapter four was two-factor analysis of variance to find whether the affective gifts have the mutual function. Chapter five was an intensive and representative experiment to validate the conclusion of chapter two. Chapter six was a model of tendency decided by the objective gifts owned by decision-maker. The last one was a general conclusion of all our study , including important conclusions, shortcomings and prospect.