| This paper analyses single bank's failure qualitatively and quantitatively. Analyses the reason, discrimination, prediction, treatment and countermeasures of bank failure. The emphases of this paper are on the factors discrimination and failure prediction. The reseach into factors dicrimination can help government and banks find the question accurately, and take effective measures to prevent trouble before it happens. Prediction analyses can find the failure bank ahead of time, and make the decision on rescue or market exit to minimize its negative effect. The content of the full paper is arranged as follows:Chapter 1 explains the research background and meaning of this paper, comments the current research situation of bank failure both at home and abroad, and sets forth academic value of this reseach.Chapter 2 defines the concept of bank failure, and analyses the reason on the bank failure from the inherent unstability with the banking system, market structure/power, corporate governance, bank efficiency, etc.Chaper 3 studies the discrimination and prediction method of bank failure. Explores various kinds of bank failure models and methods, including early warning system by supervision authorities, the bank outside rating, and econometrics methods, such as, linear probability model, discriminant analysis, Logit analysis, Probit analysis, Cox PHM, Non Parametric Trait Recognition Model, and Event Studies.Chapter 4 employs Logit model to estimate, discriminate and predict the single bank failure completely, according to the data on the banks in Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea S., and Philippine during 1997-2000. The aim of this study is to find bank failure's factors that determine which bank can survive in a worse economic system, and to analyse the discrimination and prediction power difference between the model using only single bank's micro financial data and the model merging macroscopical data and micro financial data. The paper discovers that the bank with good...
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