Research On Evaluation Problems In Making Emergency Plans

Emergency management has been given wide attention because emergencies appear frequently. Management of emergency plans is one of the most important parts in emergency management system. The emergency plan is a kind of plan or project to deal with possible emergency and develop succor quickly and efficiently to decrease the emergency loss. Nowadays, our country and local governments, even enterprises have made emergency plans. But there are still some problems in emergency plans, such as poor operability, unclear leadership and action sequence, loss of guarantee mechanism, lack of risk and vulnerability evaluation, insufficiency of resource distribution etc. The problems above may cause undesired results. There is much research on emergency plans while research on evaluation of emergency plans is limited. With evaluation of emergency plans, the flaw of emergency plans can be found and corrected to improve the effect. The emergency plans would be evaluated comprehensively and the root of problems can be found. Vulnerability and resource distribution evaluation are important in emergency plans evaluation. Without sufficient vulnerability evaluation, the areas with strong vulnerability would not get special treatment and may cause more losses. Without periodic resource distribution evaluation, the resource supply may not satisfy the demand of emergency. Vulnerability and resource distribution evaluation are also complicated. There are many factors that influence vulnerability and different area has different vulnerability analysis. Besides, as far as the evaluation of resource location and allocation, there are different standards. This dissertation studied three important peoblems.The first problem was the evaluation of emergency plans. On the one hand, a comprehensive index system based on making principles, components, contents and operability to evaluate the efficiency of emergency plans before they are executed was proposed. And another index system based on the past- evaluation theory in project management to evaluate the emergency plans after they are carried into execution was also proposed. The two evaluations can be combined to reflect the problems in the course of execution to the course of making emergency plans. And then this research implements the dynamic evaluation of emergency plans and corrects the emergency plans in time to explore a way to make effective emergency plans. On the other hand, the operation process of emergency plans can be expressed with network. And based on the network, we can analyze the rationality of process and critical path of network. Due to the usual unsatisfied resource demand, the concept of rate of resource guarantee was introduced to analyze the relationship of resource demand and supply. The analysis of effect of emergency plans was based on the rate of resource guarantee of each step. The rate of resource guarantee was used to express the effect of emergency plans approximately.The second problem is evaluation of the city vulnerability. Evaluation of the city vulnerability is an important step in making emergency plans. Making vulnerability evaluation and analyzing the weakness and sensitivity of the region when making emergency plans can enforce the Countermeasures to guarantee the region security. Vulnerability is the resistance of system to emergency or hazard. Vulnerability can be expressed by susceptibility, sensitivity, the capacity to cope and resilience. More detailed index of flood disaster was given to give reference for vulnerability analysis of different kinds of emergencies. Several evaluation methods were also proposed here.The third problem is evaluation of the current resource location and allocation. It is necessary to evaluate the availability of resources based on current resource distribution because resource demand will change along with time. The current distribution can be evaluated from two aspects. On the one hand, the time requirement and quantity requirement should be satisfied. The former means the emergency can get help in the time the government ordered, the latter means the quantity of resource required can arrived in time. If either of the requirements can not be satisfied, the current distribution should be adjusted. On the other hand, a loss function based on time, resource supply and demand was constructed to evaluate the loss under a given resource distribution when different degrees of emergencies would occur. An optimization model was developed to adjust the current resource location and allocation when the loss was not accepted. The way of adjusting the current distribution was adding or closing some facilities and adding resource. The models combined location and allocation. At last, a resource location and allocation model of emergencies with infection was given.At the end of this paper, conclusion and prospect were given.This work was supported by National Science Foundation of China under grant Nos. 70671098 and the Doctoral Student Paper Fund of Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission (ZZ0709).