The Comparison Of Three International Mediation Strategies To Military Conflict

International mediation is an important part of international cooperation. In the practice of international mediation, the strategies are the most critical variables affecting mediation outcomes.There are three kinds of strategies. The first is directive strategy which uses rewards and sanctions or threats of withdrawal of rewards to reinforce cooperation. The second is procedural strategy which encourages behavioural change in the protagonists by controlling the procedures of the meetings and negotiations. The last is communication-facilitation strategy which involves transmitting information to and facilitating dialogue/communication between the disputants to change their behaviour. The thesis uses prisoner's dilemma as the model to analyse the effectiveness of the three strategies under different conditions. I find that in one-short game the directive strategy is the best, while in infinitely repeated game the communication-facilitation strategy is the most effective. Accordingly, in the practice of international mediation, the directive strategy is the most useful in short term, while the communication-facilitation strategy is the best in long term.To test the hypothesis, the thesis analyses a database which includes 295 mediation cases from 1945 to 1995. Through statistical analysis, I find that the data supports my hypothesis.I also conducted case analysis in the thesis, analyzing the Egypt-Israeli conflict to find evidence that will enable us to better assess the function of different strategies. In my study of the mediated negotiations in the Suez War, I examined the use of different strategies and their effects on the behaviour of the disputants and find that the directive strategy is more effective than the procedural strategy. In the aftermath of Six-Day War, the procedural strategy is proven useless. In the mediation to the Yom Kippur War, in which Henry Kissinger in the Egypt-Israeli conflict used three strategies to help the disputants to sign the Six-Point Agreement, the directive strategy is proven most effective. By examining the durability of peace in the long term, the thesis finds that peace can be best maintained by the communication-facilitation strategy.