Research On Evaluation And Mechanism Of Public Crisis Prediction In Province Area Center Cities In China

The Report from the 17th CPC National Conference prudently put forward a series of important issues concerning the management of our country and the development of our economy at the critical stage of reform and development. The management of public crisis is an important task that the Conference reemphasized, and it is the important duties that government of all levels must fulfill and the important qualifications that cadres of all levels must be equipped with. Compared with the developed countries in the west, China is just initiating its construction of urban public crisis precaution mechanism and therefore, we find many shortcomings and difficult problems waiting to be solved. They are mainly as follows. There is lack of cooperation within the precaution mechanism, which is usually the individual management pattern within individual types of crisis, individual sectors and individual areas. The fact that the construction of precaution mechanism lags behind what it is needed renders local government of all levels passive in dealing with public crisis events. On the other hand, the complexity and fragility of the urban system add to the harm that the public crisis brings about. Therefore, it is to be solved urgently to construct scientific, effective provincial central city public crisis precaution mechanism, to accurately and scientifically conceive the auspice of public crisis, to destroy public crisis at very early stage or to minimize the damage that public crisis brings to the entire society and to ensure the economy of the city and the society to develop continuously and stably.This paper draws on theories of public crisis management, urban public crisis precaution and updated public management, thoroughly investigates the provincial urban public crisis precaution mechanism with systematic, empirical and modeling analysis, and searches for the precaution methodology for monitoring provincial central urban public crisis and constructs the precaution mechanism for provincial central urban public crisis, based on summarizing, and comparing major cities of other countries in public crisis precaution mechanism. This paper will have important theoretical and practical implications for completing public crisis management theory and public crisis precaution theory, upgrading the management efficiency and safeguarding ability for public crisis precaution and ensure the healthy and stable development of the city in China.First, this paper makes a study into the relevant theories about urban public crisis precaution and management, including public crisis management theory, public crisis precaution theory and updated public management theory. Based on the relevant theory on public crisis, this paper attaches importance to the features of urban public crisis which provide support for the composition of the paper; defines the meaning of provincial central city, analyzes the current situations of the provincial central urban public crisis precaution mechanism, put forward a series of problems that exist in China and their causes and offers preconditions for constructing public crisis precaution mechanism; analyzes the public crisis precaution mechanism theoretical and practical experience in big cities in western developed countries, especially U. S. and Japan and provides revelation for the building of urban public crisis precaution mechanism in China.Second, based on the above research, this paper put forwards the inducing factors that affect provincial central urban public crisis, including internal indirect factors such as economic, political and cultural factors, external direct factors such as organizational, individual and managerial factors and environmental factors such as natural environment and international environment, and analyzes the formation mechanism and evolution process of the provincial central urban public crisis. It uses event-chain theory, causative factor mutation model and social burning theory to analyze the formation mechanism and uses Entropy Change Theory to analyze the evolution process, so as to lay a foundation for provincial central urban public crisis precaution mechanism.Third, this paper constructs the provincial urban public crisis precaution mechanism suitable in Chinese context, builds the organizational structure of provincial central urban public crisis precaution, analyzes the interaction between each level within the structure and explains the precaution mechanism, including the systematic construction, operation proceeding and implementation model. It also brings forth the precaution messaging mechanism, including message monitoring mechanism, message evaluation mechanism and message declaration system, and the precaution emergency mechanism in terms of emergency policy making and emergency control mechanism.Fourth, this paper raises the issue concerning the cooperation within the precaution mechanism. It applies the basis theories and methods from research in cooperation, defines the meaning and theoretical basis of the cooperation within the precaution mechanism and clarifies its features, principles, objectives and the discrepancy between the reality and ideal. Based on the realistic features in China and the operational experiences concerning public crisis management in developed countries, it puts forward the overall structure and cooperation model for the provincial urban public crisis precaution mechanism in China.Five, this paper constructs the evaluation standards and methodology for the provincial central urban public crisis precaution mechanism and holds empirical analysis towards 15 provincial central cities. It constructs the evaluation model for the precaution mechanism, including integrated model of inconclusive evaluation, the evaluation model based on uncertain model and the precaution model based on neural network. The results show that the precaution in provincial central urban public crisis remains at low level with only a small part remains at medium level, and therefore measures must be taken.At last, this paper presents effective measures to ensure the smooth operation of the precaution mechanism. The first and foremost task is to integrate the management organizational system of the provincial urban public crisis precaution, including the management structure, educational mechanism, citizen participation management mechanism and messaging management. Secondly, it is needed to build responsibility mechanism for the precaution management, including power division mechanism, monitoring mechanism and responsibility mechanism. Thirdly, it is necessary to construct the message declaration mechanism for the public crisis precaution. Furthermore, we need to perfect the legal support system for the public crisis precaution management.