| Since the 1992 housing institution reform had been spread all over the country, the real estate market has been developing rapidly. At the same time, the housing price is continually going up so fast that it not only stimulates the speculation demand, but also depresses the real housing demand supported by income. A huge stock of wealth has been transferred from the buyer to the seller, and an enormous sum of welfare loss resulted from the soar of housing price. It becomes imperative to strengthen the study on the factors leading housing price to change, the mechanism and the dynamic influence of housing price change acted by significant factors, the results , and the effects of Chinese real estate macro-Management, in order to improve both the efficiency of macro-Management polices and the level of social welfare.This thesis comprises eight chapters. We will expound it according to the studying trains of thought: putting forward the problem→Analyzing the factors influencing Chinese housing price change→the results→Analyzing the effects of Chinese real estate macro-control.Chapter one: Introduction. In this chapter, we not only discussed the studying background, including putting forward the problem, objective and significance of this dissertation, and the studying scope, but also analyzed the related studies and summed up it from the contents and methods, in order to put forward studying trains of thought.Chapter two: Analyzing the relation between real estate industry and economical development: international comparison. This chapter reviewed Chinese real estate developing situation at first, quantitatively analyzed the relation between both housing sale and real estate investment and GDP, and we compared it with abroad. Finally, we discussed the effects of domestic economy acted by real estate rapidly developing.Chapter three: Theoretically investigating the factors determing Chinese housing price to change. The chapter qualitatively analyzes the factors affecting housing price. After specify its meaning and peculiarity, we set up a simple model about the house supply-demand equilibrium according to economic theory and the available data, and put forward our opinions of the method to estimate & test theoretical model.Chapter four: Empirical analysis of the factors influencing Chinese housing price. This chapter originally imports the quantifying "speculation factor" into the model. We estimate the model of the affecting factors of housing price using the method of Ordinary Least Squares (OSL) in the way of Double-log-linear regression. After getting the influence of the significant factors, we analyze the case of general situation and each provincial case.Chapter five: Theoretically investigating the mechanism of housing price change influenced by significant factors. This chapter applies related economic theory to deduce theoretical mechanism model under single or double or multiple markets from housing price changing influenced by significant factors such as income, demand, cost, interest rate, etc.Chapter six: Studying the factors influencing Chinese housing price based on the SVAR model. This chapter applies SVAR to set up an econometric model about the factors influencing housing price. After discussed the method of identifying and estimating the model, we analyze how to get the dynamic influence through impulse response and variance decomposition.Chapter seven: Study on the effects of housing price change. After estimated not only Chinese real housing demand but also equilibrium price under the competitive market and the reasonable housing price, this chapter estimate the surplus and social welfare loss resulting from the soar of housing price.Chapter eight: Analyzing the effects of Chinese real estate macro-management. The chapter analyzed the necessity of macro-management in Chinese real estate market at first. And then, we discussed the gap of macro-management between china and abroad. Finally we estimated the effects of real estate macro-management.
|
PDF Full Text Request