Risk Measurement And Evaluation Of M & A In Commercial Bank

As the further development of the "going out" strategy, the Commercial Bank will also "go out", so the cross-border M & A will be an important element for the "going out" strategy of the commercial banks. The cross-border M & A of the commercial banks is a complex and systematic project, which will be confronted with much more risks and uncertainties than the implementation of the domestic M & A. This paper researches mainly the risk in each aspect of the cross-border M & A of the commercial banks, and proposes the methods and models to identify and Measure these risks. Finally, it builds the risk identification evaluation system, as well as makes the strategy to control the risks for the type and extent of the cross-border M & A of the commercial banks. The mainly contents and the research results are follows:First, this author recalls the theory of risk management, as well as focuses on analyzing and contrasting the theory which will be used in this paper. And this paper proposes the main contents and research methods.Second, according to the process divisions of the cross-border M & A of the commercial banks, this paper analyzes the risks from the timeline. Then it proposes the types and characteristics of the main risks which may exist before, during and after the cross-border M & A. And based on the relationship among the risks, it builds the structure model and system model of the cross-border M & A of the commercial banks.Then, this paper does specific analyses on risk during various stages. Firstly, according to the risk of pre-selected target area, this paper analyzes its composition and the reasons, and conducts an evaluation index system which can measure the risk and a measurement model which is combined with quantitative and qualitative method, and then proposes a fuzzy measurement model to the risk of the target area selecting based on information entropy according to the fuzzy character of risk; Secondly, according to Asymmetric process and Asymmetric information,this paper analyzes the cause of risk during M&A times, and conducts a valuation model based on risk discount factor, proposes a risk measurement model based on a new concept—Cost at Risk (CaR). At the same time, based on Asymmetric information, it proposes some suggestions which can control this kind of risk. Thirdly, Integration risk is the main risk after M&A. Against this risk, it Analyzes its composition and the reasons. It also designs an index system based on experts'judgments and conducts an expert evaluation model about integrated risk measurement.Based on the results of valorous risk analysis, this paper designs an synthesized evaluation index system, and based on AHP and Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, it conducts a model which can measure the risk in M&A of commercial bankIn 2007, ICBC merged and acquainted Standard Bank of Africa. Finally,it dose an empirical research on this.