The Research On The Economic Effects Of CAFTA

With the deep development of economic globalization in recent years, the regional economic integration had developed rapidly while the free trade area as the main types, more and more countries believe that the regional economic integration is as important as or even prior to the multilateral trade system. The process of trade liberalization inside region has changed the traditional patterns of competition and game of the international trade, the competitive games of international trade among countries had been from individuals to groups. At present, the majority of countries and regions in the world have taken part in different forms of regional trade arrangements, and signed a large number of regional trade agreements. The existing regional trade agreements have gone beyond economic category, which also have strategic significance on diplomacy and politics. They put the economic interests of their members closely together through more favorable terms on trade, investment and factor mobility, and the integration of economic interests has also formed various interest communities among their members.After the 90s of 20 century, China began to actively accept the concept of region and emphasis on East Asia. Participation in the multilateral trade system was the strategic choice to China to integrate into the world economy. However, when more and more trade had carried out within the regional groups, it's not enough for China to obtain the biggest interest from trade liberalization if China only participated in the WTO. The president Hu jintao put forward "implementing the free trade area strategy" at the 17th party congress. This strategy combined with the breadth and depth of China's opening to the outside world, and highlighting the strategic importance of free trade area, it was the actual need to China to enhance the economic level of open economy. To establish a free trade area between China and ASEAN adapt to the development trend of regional economic integration, and it was also the beginning of FTA strategy to China.Proposed to establish China-ASEAN Free Trade Area was based on economic interests, and seeking the maximization of economic benefits drove China and ASEAN to enhance economic cooperation. The focus of this dissertation is to analyze the economic effects of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area. At the same time, the dissertation also analyzes the effects of financial crisis on China and ASEAN, and discusses the promotion of CAFTA in post-crisis period. In addition, the dissertation compares the FTA strategies of the United States, Japan, South Korea and ASEAN, and proposes the adjustment of China's FTA strategy, and puts forward the strategies which China should be adopted to solve the current problems of CAFTAThis dissertation includes six parts. Chapter one is the introduction, the introduction mainly illustrates the background and the theoretical and practical significance, then summarizes the relevant literatures, on the basis of these, introduces the content and structure and research methods. Chapter two is the theoretical overview, the dissertation analyzes the concept, classification, development process, causes and the legal status of regional economic integration in detail, and summarizes the economic effects of regional economic integration through summing up the basic theories of regional economic integration. Chapter three analyzes the foundation and contents of main agreements and the expectable effects of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, introduces the original idea and establishing process of CAFTA in detail, deeply explains the background and political and economic significance and the economic foundation to establish CAFTA. According to the chronological order of various agreements, the dissertation introduces the main content of relevant agreements and rules in detail, and briefly explains the expectable effects. Chapter four analyzes the factual economic effects with quantitative and qualitative analysis of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, composes of the static effects and dynamic effects and includes seven parts with detailed analysis. Chapter five discusses the impacts of financial crisis on the economy of China and ASEAN, especially in trade and foreign direct investment and economic growth, and introduces the measures which China and ASEAN had adopted to counteract the financial crisis under the framework of CAFTA, and proposes some countermeasures to promote the further development of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area in the post-crisis period. Chapter six discusses the strategic choices of promoting CAFTA to China, in this chapter the dissertation first analyzes the FTA strategies and policies to ASEAN of the United States, Japan and South Korea, and then presents the FTA strategy of ASEAN and its attitude to CAFTA. On the basis of comparative analysis, the dissertation puts forward some adjustment measures about Chinese FTA strategy and strategic choices on CAFTA.