Effectiveness Evaluation And Mechanism Design Of Agricultural Catastrophic Risk Management In China

In order to improve the effectiveness of agricultural catastrophe risk management, this research feigned to discuss the Inundated mechanism and economical social effect of agricultural catastrophe risk with the property of agriculture catastrophe risk,which was defined as an entry point.Meanwhile, which catch the main point of agricultural catastrophe risk -with the behaviors choice and risk attitude of farmers as the core, depicting evolutionary game process and optimization path of the related risk subject behavior, as well as analyzing effect factor which would affect the main factors of agricultural catastrophe risk.On this basis, combined with evolution locus and thought evolved in agriculture catastrophe risk management in China, we tried to construct effective evaluation standards and systems of China's agricultural catastrophe risk management, and to evaluate China's agriculture determination catastrophe risk management level, In additional to analyze the main problems and obstacles. Finally, through the comparison and reference of agricultural catastrophe risk management in advanced countries, designing a long-effect mechanism of china's agriculture catastrophe risk management, and putting forward countermeasures and suggestions in a strategic and operational point of viewThe main contents1,The attribute and effect analysis of Agricultural catastrophe riskThe research discussed the characteristics of Agricultural catastrophe risk,and the differences in companion with common natural disaster risk.And then it analyzed the conforming circumstance, the factors and the features of victims, as well as the economic and social effect.2,The main body's behavior selection and optimization of Agricultural Catastrophe RiskThe research provided practical basis and theoretical support for improving the management effectiveness and mechanism designing of Agricultural Catastrophe Risk. The author used the empirical models such as expected effect theory and risk preference theory for rreference. And through the establishment of the micro-foundation and argument specification's analysis framework, meanwhile,on the basis of statistical analysis to the 351 questionnaires in the five provinces and one city of the country,the author made normative sense reasoning for Catastrophic risk on the main behavioral characteristics of agricultural and risk preferences.3,Agricultural Catastrophe Risk Management International comparison and referenceThe Research was based on the describe of the statistical analysis and mathematical deduction mainly. And the author introduced the ways of case studies. The author summarized the similarities and differences, as well as the experience and lessons learned, which through the investigation, analysis and comparison of catastrophe risk management from different countries.4,Domestic agriculture catastrophe risk evaluationThe model of this study was constructed base on the theory of economics, society, and moral scene, which have goal of fairness, effectiveness, encourage and make a reduction of risk. The study construct the foundation for the ability reduce the risk against agriculture disaster, the system of protecting and reducing the cost caused by the disaster, the emergency management procedures, lost recovery system and moral issue. The evaluation system included five different areas, and 37 indexes. Through the combination of professor evaluation and the method of AHP to analysis case, in additional to weight index and evaluate domestic agriculture catastrophe risk management.5,Domestic agriculture catastrophe risk management long-term system designThe management system was majorly based on the selection of risk body and optimization. Additionally, at the same time it was also a reflection of an improvement of effectiveness for the agriculture catastrophe risk management. The study emphasized and surrounded by the topic of agriculture catastrophe risk management system, encouragement system, emergency backup system and loss recovery system.Conclusion1,Agricultural catastrophe risk seriously weakened the foundation of economic and social sustainable development. Agricultural catastrophe risk has the natural attribute of Symbiosis, group-occur and concomitants, also the economic attribute and heavy-tailed statistic attribute. A multi-attribute agricultural catastrophe risk showed difference from characteristics of common natural disasters, which further enhanced the difficulty and intensity in agricultural catastrophe risk management.By the analysis of disaster mechanism of Agricultural catastrophe risk we finded that agriculture catastrophe losses would be superimposed expanded, since the Multiplex of hazard -formative factors, vulnerability of Hazard-affected body,as well as the vulnerability of conforming environment. And have an important impact on the sustainable development of society and economy by the value of risk carrier.2,The peasants'risk preference was unstable under the influence of agricultural catastrophe risk.By constructing a behavior economics prospect theory analysis frame,the researchers thought that under the influence of agricultural catastrophe risk,the peasants risk preference is unstable. The conclusion was based on practical investigation data. Indeed, owing to the fact that peasants were ignorant when they confronted the problems of agricultural catastrophe risk, peasants'limited rational realization degree was inferior. Under the significant interference of non-Bayesian rules, rules of representativeness, anchoring effect, herd behavior. peasants' rrational choices had often contributed to the individual behaviour.Thus risk aversion changed for risk appetite. Noticeably, further study also helps us to crystallize pieces of thoughts. In the existing government which under the influence of all-around relief mode, farmers would continue to think that the catastrophe risk facing agriculture is ineffective, which was somewhat inconsistent with the agricultural catastrophe risk management intentions that government had before. Additionally, it was also important reason for the low efficiency of the current agricultural catastrophe risk management.3,Game trajectory in market subjects evolutionary of Agricultural catastrophe risk didn't have stable strategy. Through using evolution game theory, it constructed the analysis framework,assuming that the market only existed farmer's communities and insurance companies' community. Insurance companies and farmer's game trajectory did not exist the evolutionary stable strategy which makes game mutual stable. There was only a better strategy which could make average agricultural catastrophe management market come true. Whether the Farmers would buy agricultural catastrophe insurance was decided by an individual comparison and the expected benefits,as well as the size of the choice cost it will assume. Due to the fact that agricultural catastrophe risk was a special properties object, to increase the safeguard scope and depth of agricultural catastrophe risk only with the insurance company group was not realistic. Indisputably, the government can optimize effective participation of peasants' groups and the selection strategy of insurance company groups.4,The difference between farmers had a substantial influence on their satisfaction of the Agricultural Catastrophe Risk Management. Base on the refine and analysis of the survey data, the research analyzed the farmers'satisfaction of the agricultural catastrophe risk management and the factors influenced on it with the factor analysis and logistic model. The results indicated that the age and cultural level, family and the family income, the proportion of households in agricultural earnings and the tendency of farmers' behavior choose had a dramatically influence on the satisfaction of the agricultural catastrophe risk management. By reducing the dimension, the farmers of agricultural catastrophe risk management actions can be decomposed into self-aggressive tendencies, the government and the social relational dependent. First of all,the more obvious tendency of self-active type of farmers, agricultural catastrophe risk management and effectiveness of the initiative was stronger, meanwhile,positive impact on the degree of satisfaction was also greater. The second was that government-dependent type of household and social relations.5,Current Agriculture Risk Management appeared the low level of overall effectiveness in China. By building the effectiveness of Agricultural Risk Management Evaluation System, combined with expert scoring method and the method of AHP paradigm, we conducted comprehensive evaluations of the index weight,as well as the performance of current agricultural catastrophe risk management. The results showed the effectiveness of agricultural catastrophe risk management scoring only 58.7 points, is divided into five grades in the "general" grade level, which showed that our current agricultural catastrophe risk management to enhance efficiency had yet to be. In five components of agricultural Catastrophe Risk Management, only emergency management and social identity catastrophe were both in the "good" level, especially,sharing aspects of catastrophe losses scored significantly lower than other areas.Which indicated that China's agricultural Catastrophe Disaster losses can not be effectively shared.朗读6,To improve the effectiveness of the agricultural catastrophe risk management, designing of the Long-term Mechanism always comes first. The long-term mechanism of catastrophe risk management in China includeed the operation mechanism, incentive & constraint mechanism, emergency mechanism as well as the loss allocation & compensation Mechanism. In terms of management operating mechanism, the key point was to do good deal with the role orientation between the government and the market. But, analysis showed that governments' responsibility boundary of the agricultural catastrophe risk management is constantly restricted by many factors, for example, the financial strength,budget layout, developed degree of the regional economy and the emergency reflecting ability,etc.Consequently, an establishment of comprehensive management operating mechanism which involves both the government and the market is an inevitable choice. Meanwhile, as the embodiment and subdivision of the comprehensive management operating mechanism, the incentive & constraint mechanism,emergency mechanism and the loss allocation & compensation mechanism constituted the long-term mechanism of agricultural catastrophe risk management in China. We should say that the design and operation of the management operating mechanism were important guarantees and basic premises to enhance the efficiency of catastrophe risk management.Innovation1.This research is based on statistical survey to study the subjects' behaviour choice and risk preference of the agricultural catastrophe risk. This paper emphasized the subjects' behaviour choice and risk preference rather than other research angles and basic points. Because peasants were the most important objects and participants in the agricultural catastrophe risk management, whose choices and views on this risk played a vital role in boosting it's effectiveness. Meanwhile, the implementation of scientific and rational institution and policy of the agricultural catastrophe risk management were in desperate need of positive cooperation and understanding from relative subjects. To depict and describe accurately the subjects'behavioral characteristic had a profound impact on the improvement of the level and effectiveness of the agricultural catastrophe risk management.2.Attempting to construct an effectiveness evaluation index system of agricultural catastrophic risk management. First of all, agricultural catastrophic risk management should solve the problem of measure standard. That is, we can manage the agricultural catastrophic risk. And then, what is the goal and value standard of the management? On the basis of the study of existing literatures, this paper proposed three principles based on fairness,efficiency and incentive of disaster reduction innovatively. Meanwhile it constructed the effectiveness evaluation index system of domestic agricultural catastrophic risk management from five aspects, including the evaluation of capacity of resilience to agricultural catastrophe,system of prevention and reduction to catastrophe,catastrophe emergency management,loss sharing and social identity, and determined the current level of the agricultural catastrophic risk management through expert scoring method,chromatography analysis and so on.3.Comprehensively design the long-term mechanism of domestic agricultural catastrophic risk management. In the premise that the effective goal of the agricultural catastrophic risk management has been made clear, this paper constructed the long-effect mechanism of our country's agricultural catastrophic risk management in the combination with the behaviour characteristics of the agricultural catastrophic risk's subject. In the process of the mechanism design, it paid attention to the sociality and naturalness unity of agricultural catastrophic risk management and focused on the government and market's liquidity, which not only embodied the engineering methods for the management mechanism design from the perspective of traditional disaster research, but also put more emphasis on the blend of the humanities and social science elements. Judging from the existing literatures, the long-term mechanism of agricultural catastrophic risk management this paper had designed has more significant innovation.