Research On Coordination Relation Model And Evaluation Methood Of Road Transportation And The National Economy

Road transportation occupies the important position in integrative transportation system of our country, which is the link and bridge among various departments of national economy, as well as is the foundation and precursor of national economy. Road transportation and national economy promote and condition each other. On the one hand, road transportation came into being and develops with the development needs of social economic and the development level of social economic determines the development level of road transportation, on the other hand development of road transportation and quickening pace of social circulation promote the development of social economic, play supporting and protecting role to social economic.During the period of the "Eleventh Five Plan", expressway mileage of our country reaches 74.1 thousand kilometers, ranks the second in the world. Expect to the end of the "Twelfth Five Plan", main framework of expressway network in our country will be completed basically, the total traffic mileage will reach 100 thousand kilometers, leap to the first place in the word. Highway Construction is developing rapidly while highway transport capacity is increasing rapidly, therefore whether the road transportation can be compatible with the development of national economy is directly related to the development of national economy.To make scientific and systematic analysis and research on the relationship between road transportation and national economy, master the adaptability between road transportation and national economy as a whole, the co-integration theory and the error modification model are introduced in this paper, long-term equation of balanced trend between road transportation and national economy and the error modification model mirrors short-term change between the two are set. By introducing the Synergy Theory, Adaptability analysis model from road transportation to economy is set up from two aspects of static and dynamic system. Based on input-output model and industry related theory, make quantitative analysis on the effect of unit output increase of road transportation on increase of national economy, and according to the accounting of added value objectively reflect every value created by road transportationThis dissertation is totally divided into six chapters which include introduction, theory study, co-integration analysis study, adaptability analysis study, contribution study, added value account and conclusion as well as prospect.In the first chapter, the significance of study on adaptability of road transportation to the development of national economy under current social and economic environment in our country is analyzed, then the aim of this dissertation is put forward; after the related study status quo is summed up, the problems and deficiency existing in the related domain is put forward; then specifically connotation of road transportation and national economy are defined, at last, the content and means for studying this dissertation are clarified.In the second chapter, Fundamental Theory and research method which mainly consist of introducing and introduction of error modification model, synergy theory, input-output theory and co-integration theory are introduced in details.In the third chapter error modification model and co-integration theory are introduced, proceed from the relationship which is showed by data of economic variable establish variable included in model and theory relationship between variables, mainly make co-integration analysis between economic development relation and highway mileage, vehicle population, passenger transport demand, freight transport demand, set up long-term equation mirrors balanced trend between variables as well as the error modification model mirrors short-term change between the variables, the tow can reflect the dynamic process from short-term change to long-term balanced evolution between variables clearly, in order to show the dynamic evolvement rules between road transportation and economy clearly.In the forth chapter, according to synergy theory use effect function to calculate the contribution of each index to system order degree, use coordination degree formula to calculate system order degree value of system order parameter and corresponding fit conditions of each coordination degree, come to a conclusion that the road transportation of our country lagged behind the development of national economy in 2002, didn't meet the requirements of national economy in 2003 and 2004, and almost adapted to national economy in 2005,2006 and 2007.In the fifth chapter, use input-output model and industry related theory to make quantitative analysis on the effect of unit output increase of road transportation on increase of national economy, it is to say the direct effect, forward spreading effect, backward spreading effect, consumptive wave effect of transportation unit output value increase to national gross product and the effect to employment growth, as well as the influence coefficient and inductive degree coefficient of road transportation to other trades of national economy.The sixth chapter adopts income method to calculate added value of road transportation, defines main effect factors of value added coefficient by principal component analysis approach, based on the value added coefficient of Jilin province to calculate the value added coefficient of the national road transportation and objectively reflect every value created by road transportationChapter seven mainly makes a summary and prospect for the study. Conclusions of total dissertation are generalized by reviewing, some innovative fruits of this dissertation are discussed, and the fields that should be studied in the future are presented.