Research On Evolutional Mechanism Of Regional Port Group Based On Self-organization Theory

With the gradually appeared trend of port clusterization, the development of port group gains a lot attention. Port operators begin to care about how to participate more in port-group activities and stimulate their own development, and port managers begin to care about how to guide port group to show the cluster advantages, thus it is to command public respect and support to do a thorough research on the development mechanism of the port group.In view of the deficiency of previous studies, port group system was considered as the study object and analysis on evolution mechanism was the main content. On one hand, from the prospective of system science, a theoretical framework of evolution research on port group system was proposed and some basic theoretical analysis was done on the subject. On the other hand, based on self-organization theory, the modeling research on the formation and evolution mechanism of port group system was processed.Firstly, the relevant conceptions, compositions, environment and characteristics of port group system were given,and with a case study of the Yangtze River Delta port group, the stage characteristics of port group evolution were summarized by comparative analysis on vertical and horizontal concentration ratio, the stage characteristics of port group was summarized.Secondly, starting from the internal motivation, a dynamic equation of port group evolution was established and the port throughput was considered as the state variable.The methods of parameter estimation and equation fitting were given in detail through mathematical deduction. A case study of the Yangtze River Delta port system was applied to prove the effectiveness of the above dynamic equation.Thirdly, putting both the internal and the external dynamic factors in consideration, an extended cellular automata (CA) was set up considering a sub-port as a single cell. By adjusting the parameters of external factors, the influence by external motivations can be observed. Then, a numerical example was used to examine the availability of the CA model. The simulation results show that the regional economic was the most significant external variable. In the end, the main conclusions of the dissertation were summarized, some suggestions and future concerns toward the weak point were put forward.