| For nearly three decades, the international direct investment to grow rapidly worldwide, from 1970 to 2009, the world's foreign direct investment increased from 14 billion U.S. dollars to 151.5 billion U.S. dollars. Data shows that while developed countries are still the world's main source of foreign direct investment in the country, but since the last century since the late 1980s, developing countries have also started to become an important source of foreign direct investment in the country, of the world's total share of foreign direct investment from the 3% in 1980 to 9.4% (UNCTAD,2010), in which the East Asian developing countries, particularly significant. The amount of outward direct investment from the East Asian developing countries accounting for 66.4% of total investments from.. developing countries. The traditional theory of foreign direct investment mainly focused on developed countries, with the rapid growth of foreign direct investment from eveloping countries in recent years, its economic effects on mother countries have become the focus of research. This thesis on the basis of combing the relevant theoretical literature and analy zing the basic characteristics and determinants of outward direct investment from the East Asian emerging economies, use 1980-2009 data to empirically analyze economic growth effects,international trade Effects, employment effects, technology spillover effects and the adjustment effects of industrial structure of outward direct investment of the emerging economies of East Asia. This thesis around these problems carries out illustrations from five dimensions.(1)The thesis analyzes the Economic Growth effects on the home countries of Outward Direct Investment of the emerging economies of East Asia. Firstly, constructing the transmission mechanism model to economic growth of outward direct investment on the basis of IDP theory to determine the research framework, secondly, using cointegration analysis, Granger causality test and other methods to study the different effects of economic growth of outward direct investment on different countries (regions) of East Asian emerging economies,and furthermore have comparative analysis.(2) The thesis analyzes the international trade effects on the home countries of Outward Direct Investment of the emerging economies of East Asia. Firstly, analyzing the mechanism to export and import trade of different types of ourward direct investment, using panel data cointegration analysis, causality analysis methods to study the different effects on international trade of outward direct investment from Different countries (regions) of emerging economies in East Asia and have comparative analysis.(3) The thesis analyzes the employment effects on the home countries of Outward Direct Investment of the emerging economies of East Asia. Firstly constructing the effecting employment mechanisms model of outward direct investment, and using regression analysis and mathematical projection methods to analyze different employment effects of outward direct investment from the East Asian emerging economies,and comparative analysis.(4)The thesis analyzes the technological spillover effects effects on the home countries of Outward Direct Investment of the emerging economies of East Asia. Firstly constructing the micro-and macro-transmission mechanism, and using VAR model and variance decomposition analysis to explore the different technology spillover effects of outward direct investment on the Different countries (regions) of, and comparative analysis.(5)The thesis analyzes the industrial structure adjustment effects effects on the home countries of Outward Direct Investment of the emerging economies of East Asia. Firstly analyzes the transmission mechanism to the industrial structure of outward direct investment, using cointegration and Granger causality analysis, regression analysis,to study the different effects of the industrial structure adjustment on different countries (regions) of outward direct investment in East Asia Emerging economies and comparative analysis.Through the above analysis, the main results are as follows:(1)The economic growth effects on the home countries of outward direct investment from the East Asian emerging economies are "added effect", but the causal relationship between each other is different from countries (regions). The level of GDP and per capita income growth of China, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and Taiwan are Granger cause of the growth of the amount of outward direct investnment, but the reverse causality does not hold,which indicates above five countries(regions) are in accordance with the IDP theory and extended theory. The increase of outward direct investment in Singapore and Thailand are Granger cause of the growth of GDP and per capita GDP, while the growth of GDP and per capita GDP of the home country are not Granger cause of outward dirct investment. The increase of outward direct investment of Hong Kong and Indonesia and economic growth and per capita income levels are Granger causality each other.(2) The import and export trade effect of outward direct investment of emerging economies of East Asia countries (regions) have significant "trade creation"effect, but elasticity of import and export trade among countries (regions) of outward direct investment is obviously different. The export and import elasticity of outward direct investment of China, the Philippines and Taiwan is greater than other countries(regions). The increase of outward direct investment of China, the Philippines, Korea, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore can net exports, While net export effects of Taiwan, Hong Kong and Indonesia's outward direct investment is negative. In the short term, outward direct investments in emerging economies of East Asia have inhibitory effect on import and export trade, but not obvious;On the contrary, the import and export trade of East Asian emerging economies can significantly stimulate outward direct investment. From the point of Causal relationship view, whether long or short term, For East Asian emerging economies, the Granger cause between outward direct investment and import and export trade exist.(3)The employment effects of outward direct investment from emerging economies of East Asia countries (regions) have difference greatly. The employment effects of Hong Kong and Singapore are added effects, but unsignificantly.for Republic of Korea, Thailand and the Philippines, the outward direct investments have substitution effect on employment, in which the substitution effect of Thailand is most obvious. From specific industries, outward direct investments of commerce and trade has significant additional effect on employment; outward direct investments of manufacturing have generally substitution effect on home country; The outward direct investments of financial sector have added effects on employment of home country The outward direct investments of the construction industry have consistent effects on home country employment, South Korea and the Philippines have substitution effects on employment of the construction industry, Hong Kong is not obvious, and the increase of outward direct investments in China's construction industry can create Jobs.(4)The reverse technology spillover effects of outward direct investments of East Asian emerging economies are obviously different, the reverse technology spillover effect is not significant in China, the reverse technology spillover effect of outward direct investment in Hong Kong is negative. The path and degree of influencing on technology progress of East Asian emerging economies vary widely, the outward direct investments of South Korea, Thailand and Malaysia have positive effects on technology progress of the home countries in the long run, but with lagment.In the short term have negative effects. The outward direct investments of Indonesia and Singapore have obviously promoting effects on technological progress of home countries, but in particular there is a negative effect.(5)The change of proportion of Stock of outward direct investments to GDP can significantly affect the home country's industrial structure, but the influencing degree and effects are different among the specific countries (region) and specific industries.Outward direct investments have negative effects on the structure of the primary industry effect, China, Thailand and Indonesia have a larger absoulutely negative impact. The influencing effects of outward direct investments on the proportion of secondary industry are different among the countries (region). China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand Effect is positive, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and the Philippines have a negative effect, Indonesia, the Philippines, China, Thailand have absoulutly larger effects. The effects of outward direct investments on the structure of tertiary industry in the countries (region) are different obviously, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, the Philippines have a positive effect, while Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand have a negative effect, among them China, Philippines, South Korea and Thailand have larger effects. |
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