| Cattle industry is the important part of animal husbandry. Since the 1980s, Chinese cattle industry has developed rapidly and ranks the third in the world at present. The cattle industry can increase farmers'income, raise the percent of sire saving grain, guarantee the national grain safety and improve people's life. With the rapid development of the economic society and the improvement of people's life, cattle industry has become one of the key industries in China's animal husbandry. Compared with other animal industry, cattle has its own unique biology regularity, its production cycle and industry chain are long, the coverage is extensive and the return on investment capital is low, which have caused the contradiction between the supply and demand of cattle industry, and restricted the sustainable development of the industry. Since the year of 2006, the amount of livestock has decreased year by year, and the basic quantity of cows has diminished dramatically. The cattle industry is restricted by the shortage of cattle resource. As a result, in the new period, the coordination of China's cattle industry with other meat industry, and the sustainable development are the important subjects which our government and the relative researchers have to confront with.Based on this point, the dissertation analyzes the general developing situation and the prediction of the supply and demand of Chinese cattle industry, combining with the present situation and through intensive survey and research. The author also analyzes the factors of economy, resource, environment, society and opportunities which will affect the sustainable development of Chinese cattle industry, and establishes the evaluation index system of sustainable development, with the help of concerning statistical data and research data, and making use of componential analysis—a kind of econometrics instrument. With the index system, the author carries out a comprehensive evaluation on the sustainable development of our cattle industry, study the requirements of sustainable development of the cattle raising industry, and present the sustainable development model of Chinese cattle raising in the coming 20 to 30 years.The dissertation includes 8 chapters, the main contents and conclusions are as follows:Chapter one and chapter two, serving as the induction to, the concept definition and the theoretical background of the dissertation, expound the the significance of subject selection, content and methods of the research and its technical route. They observe the relative domestic and international researches, define the basic concepts and research scope involved in the dissertation, and formulates the theoretical basis on which the dissertation is developed.Chapter three discusses the general development of cattle industry in China, including the significance of the development of cattle industry, the achievement made in recent years, the basic features and the problems existing in the present cattle industry. In view of the above problems, it analyzes the reasons, such as the low comparative benefit of cattle raising, lacking policy support, the quality safety of beef consumption caused by the asymmetry of market information.Beginning with the supply and demand of Chinese beef, in view of the difference of the ownership and consumption amount per capita, and using the statistical data, chapter four predicts the consumption of our 31 provinces with the help of independent and mixed cross-sectional model respectively. Using the Quadratic curve model, it also predicts the timing tendency of the beef supply in the four main beef producing districts and all over the country. The prediction shows the positive correlation between the beef consumption amount and people's income, and that the beef is in short supply in our country, especially the upmarket beef.Chapter five analyzes the factors affecting the sustainable development of our cattle industry, including the factors the economy, resource, environment, science and technology, opportunities and the institution. Through the analysis, it shows that the cattle industry is restricted by the supply-demand relationship, biological environment, the hydro and electric energy, the input of scientific technology and the policy support, etc. Meanwhile, with the economic development and the improvement of intensification, the sustainable development of our cattle industry will be restricted by the land factor. The labor factor will not restrict its development. Chapter five supplies analysis basis for the following chapters when selecting evaluation index and the sustainable development route.Chapter 6 establishes the evaluation system using componential analysis. According to the present situation, the factors of sustainable development, and the situation of resource exploitation, it divides the sustainable development system of cattle industry into three comparatively independent and inter-related subsidiary systems:economic system, social system and ecological-environment system. Using the SPSS 16.0 statistical software, it analyzes the main elements, deeply study the sustainable development situation from the year of 1999 to 2008, and the movement tendency.Chapter seven elaborates the selection of the route and pattern of the sustainable development of Chinese cattle industry. Focusing on the guiding ideology and the strategic principal of the sustainable development of cattle industry, it deeply analyzes the nature, intention, the guiding ideology and the strategic principal of the sustainable development of cattle industry. According to the basic national condition, with reference to the successful experience of the sustainable development of the cattle industry at home and abroad, it puts forward for Chinese cattle industry the biological, safe and sustainable developing route with high production, optimum quality, high efficiency.Chapter eight provides advice and suggestion. On the basis of concluding the research results of the thesis, the author presents suggestion for the sustainable, stable and healthy development of Chinese cattle industry, which supplies reference for relative government departments to make decisions.In view of the contents studied, the innovations are that the thesis systemically analyzes various factors of the sustainable development of cattle industry, and statistically analyzes and comprehensively evaluates the sustainable development of cattle industry with the method of componential analysis. Judging by the perspective of the research, the existing literature has rarely reported any analysis of the sustainable development of single industry, thus, the thesis studies the cattle industry. Judging by the practical significance of the research, the thesis deeply analyzes the restrictions and problems of the sustainable development of the cattle industry, and puts forward practical and effective measures, supplies reference for the planning and stipulation of relative policies, to promote the industry competitive capacity, and to create abundant biological and social benefits. Meanwhile, the research of the sustainable development of the cattle industry has important significance to ensure the sustainable beef supply, to improve people's livelihood, to protect the environment and the ecology, to create two-oriented society, to establish large agriculture combining agriculture and husbandry, and to promote the new socialist rural establishment. |
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