The Empirical Study On The Service Trade Effect Among The China And The Asean

With the expansion of service economy, plus the international competition core is transferring from commodities trade to service trade, the development of service trade is the real concern of each nation. Developing countries is obviously in a disadvantage place in the international service trade, however, there is a trend that service trade would be shifting to developing countries gradually, thus developing countries would play a more important role in the service trade area in the future.China and Asean countries have been getting into a net-style regional structure, in which each side has its own specialization field and depends on each other. Furthermore, the trade, investment, mutually depending and the industries connection inside the region are deepened. All these means the goods trade and service trade in this region would be enlarged. Some main Asean countries and China would turn to manufacturing-servicing type economy, and international service trade would become a new growing point, the trade and investment between these countries would be enlarged steadily. Service Trade Agreement, which was signed by China and Asean countries, would give an institutional guarantee for bilateral service trade, and the service trade in this region would be more liberalized. According to the first batch special commitments, China would open five service departments to Asean under the permission terms of WTO, including architecture, environment protection, transportation, sports and business, which have 26 sub-sectors. Accordingly, the ten Asean countries would open finance, telecommunications, education, tourism, architecture, medical industries to China. It indicates that the development of bilateral trade has been turning into service trade from goods trade, and service trade in this region will become a new growing point and a cooperation keynote.Basing on the international economics theory as the analysis framework, this paper adopts qualitative and quantitative analysis, uses normative and empirical research, econometrics and advanced statistical analysis as main research method, and finally forms a multi-dimensional theoretical analysis framework. This topic belongs to applied research. In the specific researching process, the first step is to estimate the service trade developing level, comparative advantage, international competitiveness, the degree of openness, FDI, general human capital and the level of intra-industry trade between China and Asean, analyze each nation's policies of service trade and investment for different industries, and compare the development and features of each country's service trade barriers, then provide data support for assessment of trade and investment effect.Secondly, basing on the existing international trade theory, build theoretical model and research on the Trade Creation and Transfer Effect in service trade area between China and the ten nations of Asean. Furthermore, incorporating with the characteristics of service trade and south-south cooperation, this paper establishes small-country-model to illustrate how service trade in the region is affected by its liberalization, and gives empirical analysis and evaluation of trade creation and transfer. Establish theoretical model to analyze the transfer and creation effect of FDI, and the possibility and influencing factors of south-south service trade liberalization to multinational companies investment restructuring, and gives empirical analysis and evaluation. Establish theoretical model to discuss the division effect difference of the collocations of three sorts of service trade and investment policy,and afford theoretical support to the revision of current service trade policies of China-Asean, and further to the analysis restricting and promoting factors to the reinforce regional service trade and investment cooperation.Finally, in the foundation of above research, this paper proposes routing selection and reforming suggestions to strengthen service trade and investment cooperation inside the region. This study not only provide real evidence for the development of this area's service trade, but also give a rational forecasting of service trade between China and Asean after Service Trade Agreement coming into force. Furthermore, it gives some beneficial proposals to accelerate the service trade liberalization in this region.The study is based on theory research, and plus with the empirical test and comprehensive analysis, then induce the general rules. The innovations of this paper are mainly reflected in the following aspects:Previous research is mainly about qualitative analysis and they are fragmentary, lacking of special and systematic studies. For the first time, this paper comprehensively studies the main concern of service trade between China and Asean countries, while the previous research are mainly sticked on the whole trend of China-Asean service trade. However, this paper will surpass this and conducts research and sorts on service trade's theory basis, effect and structure, and each country's comparative advantage, commodities' international comparative force, human resource, FDI and the barriers of service trade, and finally probe deep into the above field and give measuring index.In the foundation of a accurate empirical analysis on the material conditions of China and Asean countries, by establishing theoretical model and empirical analysis, this paper give an overall analysis of the trade and investment effect of liberalization, and the conditions to achieve and the resource of the effect of service trade and investment. And for the first time, this paper promotes analysis on the effect of the combinations of service trade and investment policies, and gives a clear guideline for the developing countries to avoid policies mistake. And finally, considering the un-equilibrium of service trade and investment effect, the writer conceives concrete suggestion to promote service trade cooperation between China and Asean countries, thus provide theory basis and the empirical material for trade and investment policy coordination and cooperation in the area.