The Forecast Model And Development Trend For China Timber Supply And Demand

Based on the analysis of previous experts'research on China timber supply and demand, the paper concludes the development and change of China timber production, import and export trade, analyszes the main influence factors on China timber supply and demand, forecasts the future trend of China timber, especially large diameter timber supply and demand bu using qualitative and quatitative method based on economic forecast theory, supply and demand theory and systematic dynamics theory, put forword the strategic measures and guarantee system.Based on the data from the seventh national forestry inventory, the potential of providing timber from China natural forest and plantation are analyzed and forecast. The potential of providing timber from natural forest is 83 million m~3 in 2015 and 75 million m~3 in 2020..The potential of providing timber from plantation is 190 million m~3 in 2015 and 226 million m~3 in 2020.China timber output is not enough for booming domestic demand for timber. In order to diwindle the structure gap between domestic timber supply and demand, China has been importing large quantities of tropical timber. Sysmetic dynamics model of China tropical timber is established in order to discuss the development trend of China tropical timber supply and demand. The results of the model is that China tropical timber supply and demand in 2015 is 13 milliion m~3 and 22 million m~3, the gap is 9 million m~3, in 2020 is 13 million m~3 and 25 million m~3 respectively, the gap is 12 million m~3.The paper analyzes and forecasts China timber supply and demand in the future by using qualitative analysis method, namely Delphi method. The Delphi method is to choose 8 experts to give their answers to the questionnaire with minimum, most probable and maximum for China timber supply and demand in 2015 and 2020 for three times and get the results, calculates the third response result by using average value method and weighted mean value method. The conclusion is that China timber supply and demand in 2015 is 270 million m~3 and 400-410 million m~3, in 2020 is 280 million m~3 and 170-180 million m~3 respectively. The paper is to forecasts China timber supply and demand in the future by using quantitative forecast method, namely systematic dynamics model. The model is established by set up variable system, confirm corresponding parameter based on the analysis results of influence factors on timber supply and demand. The innovation of the model is to forecast different diameters, especially large diameter timber supply and demand by dividing 5 age class, namely young age forest, middle age forest, near mature forest, mature forest and over mature forest. The future large diameter timber supply and demand is concerned because the contradiction of China timber supply and demand mainly features the structure shortage, namely the shortage of large diameter timber. The results of Systematic dynamics model is that China supply and demand of large diameter timber in 2015 is 90 million m~3 and 180 million m~3, the gap is 90 million m~3, in 2020 is 93 million m~3 and 200 million m~3 respectively, the gap is 110 million m~3. The total of China timber supply and demand in 2015 is 250 million m~3 and 400 million m~3, the gap is 150 million m~3, in 2020 is 260 m~3 million and 460 million m~3 respectively, the gap is 200 million gap. The growth rate of China timber supply is much lower than that of China timber demand from 2010 to 2050. The gap of supply and demand is expanding annually, 150 million in 2015, 200 million in 2020, 600 million in 2050. Effective measures should be taken to avoid the expanding trend of timber supply and demand.In the end, strategic measures and technological and policy guarantee system have been put forward. The strategic measures are to base ourselves on domestic timber supply, optimize international timber resources allocation and develop recycle economy for forest products industry. Based on above-analyzed and forecast results and combination of influence factors and strategic framework of China timber safty, technological guarantee system include(1)to improve forest quality and increase forest stocking volume(2)increase forest management level, improve forest species structure(3)improve low production forest,increase production capacity of forest land(4)advocate scentific ecological logging technology(5)reform timber circulation pattern,the implementation of timber concentration processing. The policy guarantee system involves(1)formulate development planning, strengthen macro guidance(2)effective implement and strengthen industrial policies(3)stimulate social power to plant precious timber species;(4)build better international development environment for overseas enterprises(5)accelerate financial supporting policies(6)advocate timber saving society.