Research On The Strategic Environmental Assessment For Regional Industrial Development's Spatial Distribution

The fast industriliazation in China will last for the next 20~30 years, bring about the severe pollution pressure that many regions in the country have to face. During the planning of regional industrial development, the new invested enterprises'spatial distribution is of big uncertainty. It forms the uncertain spatial distribution of regional pollution pressure. It is not enough that only relying on the processing technology modification or end-pipe treatment to fulfill the demand of controlling this type of regional industrializing pollution pressure. However, measures on the level of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) such as landuse planning and industrial, environmental policies should be considered, for a source control of pollution.The thesis establishs a methodology for SEA based on the risk evaluation. It quantatively simulates the uncertain spatial distribution of regional industrial development and pollution emission, identifies the risk characteristics of pollution pressure. After that, landuse planning and policy adjustment measures are analyzed for risk control. The core of the simulation system is the micro-simulation of the industrial enterprises'investment, location choice and pollution emission behaviors under the government's regulation. Series of plans and policies'impact on the micro agents are involved. By the Monte-Carlo method, the system randomly simulates the micro agents'behaviors, which are aggregated in a bottom-up way to raise a large sampling of regional industrial development's spatial distribution and pollution emission in the future.Deyang city in Sichuan Province is the case study area. Based on its historic data in the past five years, the parameters of the models in the micro-simulation system were calibrated. This group of parameters'value is set for the the baseline scenario simulation. The parameters'value for baseline scenario was disturbed for policy adjustment scenarios of inner-sectoral economic structure, industrial concerntrated development, and environmental regulation. The simulated output is the large sampling of the major industrial sectors'spatial distribution and COD emission in the future five years. The regional pollution pressure's risk characteristics are identified based on the probability distribution of the required COD emission reduction. The difference among the scenarios'simulation outputs indicates the risk control effect of policies'adjustment measures. By restricting the indusrial land use to avoid environmental insecure and high emission-loaded samples, the land use planning measure works for the pollution risk control.