Research On The Coordinated Development Of Chinese Industrial Structure And Employment Structure

Industrial structure evolution and employment structure adjustment is actually the relocation of resources, and the healthy development of national economy asks industrial structure and employment structure to adapt to each other. Because the industry section is the carrier of employment, the adjustment of industrial structure must influence the fluctuation of employment structure, in other words, employment structure is decided by industrial structure to some extent. On the other hand, industry structure requests reasonable employment structure to adapt itself when it is evolved from the low class toward the high class, otherwise the further optimization of industrial structure must be obstructed. China has been optimizing and upgrading its industrial structure since the reform and opening-up, at the same time, the employment structure has also been adjusted accordingly. Compared with the industrial structure, its change direction is basically the same, but the degree is different and has bigger structure deviation. This indicates that there is a certain incompatibility between Chinese employment structure and industrial structure.In order to ensure the healthy and rapid development of China's national economy, based on the analyzing of domestic and foreign relative literatures, and with promoting the coordinating development between China's industrial structure and employment structure as research purpose, this paper mainly carries out reasearch in the following five areas:First of all, this paper proposes the part analysis about the evolution of China's industrial structure and employment structure since the reform and opening-up, which focuses on its characteristics of every period. Next this paper applies compositional data grey prediction method to predict the evolution of China's future industrial structure and employment structure. The result shows that the evolution of China's industrial structure and employment structure is basically in line with economic laws, and the speed of labor transfer from primary industry to tertiary industry is still slow. Forecast results shows: by 2015, China's industrial structure will still layout the development pattern of "secondary industry, tertiary industry, primary industry", and the trend of industrialization is more significant, while the pattern of employment structure will transfer from "primary industry, tertiary industry, secondary industry" to "tertiary industry, primary industry, secondary industry".Secondly, using the methods of correlation analysis, analysis of employment elasticity and comparative labor productivity analysis, this paper makes an empirical study on the relationship between the industrial structure and employment structure from different angles. The results show that China's industrial structure has a strong relationship with employment structure; tertiary industry has maintained a high employment elasticity, and has the fastest employment growth and the strongest capable for labor receiving; the gap of comparative labor productivity among three industries is gradually narrowing, and the adjustment of employment structure is gradually rationalized.Thirdly, this paper applies indicators such as structural deviation, coordination coefficient, lag time, convergence speed to study the coordination between China's industrial structure and employment structure in order to accurately grasp the degree of their coordination. The results show that: China's industrial structure and employment structure present imbalance in a long period, the coordination coefficient shows a clear descending distribution from eastern, central to western China, and there is a great disparity between different provinces;the adjustment of China's employment structure lags behind the adjustment of industrial structure, and the lag time is about five years; Since reform and opening-up, China's employment structure is gradually converging toward the ideal structure, but the convergence rate is relatively slow. In order to realize the objective of building a moderately prosperous society on schedule, we should accelerate the employment structure convergence rate in the future.Fourthly, this paper uses partial least squares path analysis model to make a empirical study on factors which affect the imbalances between China's industrial structure and employment structure. The results show that industrial development strategy, the opening lever and technological progress have a positive relationship with the structural deviation, which are the main factors leading to imbalance between China's industrial structure and employment structure. Among them, industrial development strategy is the strongest. With the improvement of urbanization and marketability, the degree of deviation between China's industrial structure and employment structure will gradually step down, and urbanization affects the most towards the improvement of structural deviation.Finally, based on the results of empirical analysis, in order to promote coordinated development of China's industrial structure and employment structure, this paper presents relevant policy recommendations, including: scientifically understand the implications of industrialization and take a new road to industrialization; accelerate the pace of urbanization and vigorously develop the tertiary industry; establish a unified labor market and improve the marketability of labor market; strengthen the employment promoting effect of technology progress, and settle the relationship between technology progress and employment properly; positively face the transfer of international industrial and properly guide the orientation of foreign investment; vigorously promote vocational education and enhance the quality of labor force.