Research On The Price Volatility And Effect Of The Chinese Housing Market

From the family property research by the National Bureau of Statistics of China in 2002, the real estate per-family is 10.95 RMB, which is 47.9 percent of the whole family property, and is the most important part in the family property. As to America, real estate is the important part of the family property. So, real estate is the important part of the social property, and is the base and important part of the social economics and social activities, and also the important force of industrialization and urbanization. The development of real estate has long run and steady effect on the national economics and the whole sociaty. Since 1990s, the standing increasing of real estate across the world make the real estate market a hot economic issue. What the people worried about is the housing bubble by the standing increasing, which will be dashed to the ground sooner or later, when huge loss will be come true. There is many examples about the real estate bubble's overturn. The major OECD countries all go through one to four peak of the real estate from 1970s to 2005, two thirds of which were followed by exceed 15 percent descend of the housing prices. The latest housing market crisis occurred 1970s, when the housing prices in Japan, England and Switzerland declined excess 25 percent. The significant and long run decreasing of the housing prices has unignored effects on the steady of finance and the increase of economics, which can bring forth the bank crisis and the economic recession. Therefore, the research on the form and effects is important topic.This paper aim at the form and effects of housing prices, and some advice was also gived, which is reference about the making of policies on the continuous steady and healthy development of the housing marketing, which is also some reference for the investors when they make decision.Based on previous studies, this paper first given the disvantages of it, then analysis the influence elements housing prices in China, pay attention to the relation between income gap and housing prices; second, based on markov regime switching model, we examing the nonlinear properties of housing prices for entire china; thirdly, based on econometrics principles of cointegration test, makes quantitative examing about the difusionpatterns of housing prices in part provinces of China; fourthly, do some research on the wealth effects of Chinese housing market; fifthly, an approach to reaching consensus in multiple attribute group decision making is proposed, its application in real estate enterprise supplier chain management is also given; sixthly, do some research on the consistency of the reciprocal and complementary matrix, their application in real estate enterprise supplier chain management is also given. The major innovation of this paper is as follows:(1) examine the nonlinear properties of housing prices over the 1999:1-2007:4 period for entire china, it shows that housing price for the entire China show non-linearity, different states had different transformation probability, and each state persist 2.2 quarters and 1.2 quarters respectively;(2) distinguish the anticipated part and unanticipated part, we make some research on the wealth effects of Chinese housing market;(3) based an approach to reaching group consensus, propose a multiple attribute group decision method, its application in real estate investment is also given;(4) based on econometrics principles of cointegration test, makes quantitative examine about the diffusion patterns of house prices in part provinces of China.