Study On The Balanced Supply Models Of Coal Supply Chain With Uncertainty In Two-echelon Yield And Demand

This paper conducts a study on the balanced supply models of coal supply chains with uncertainty in two-echelon yield and demand. Firstly, the paper gives a scientific definition of the essence of a balanced supply of coal. On this basis, a mathematical model is established for this balanced supply of coal. According to the data of the fluctuations of the two-echelon yield and demand of the coal enterprises, the empirical distribution function of fluctuations of raw coal output, commodity coal output and demand are respectively presented. Based on this, distribution functions are fitted and the distribution characteristics are analysed.Taking the supply chain of the coal enterprises consisting of one raw coal mining and one coal washery as the research object, a random game model under the situation of decentralized decision making caused by the uncertainty of two-echelon yield and demand, is established together with a random optimization model under the situation of centralized decision making. Through model and example analysis, the necessity between the rationality of the model and coordination of the supply chain are analysed. This paper establishes a cooperative game model of the profit and risk sharing mechanisms given the uncertainty of the two-echelon yield and demand in supply chain. According to the situation analysis of the demand and production in coal supply emergency, taking the balanced supply for emergence situations as the objective, the following models are established: a goal programming model for the emergency reserve; an anti-emergency decision making model for production and ordering both in the context of centralized and decentralized pattern; a goal optimization model for anti-emergency reserve given the emergency in coal supply and demand. At last, these models are extended to the area of severy raw coal minings and severy coal waseries and Xuzhou Coal Enterprise Group is taken as an research object for the discussion of the application of the balanced supply chain models.Through the study, the following conclusions can be drawn: There exists the uncertainty characteristic of random fluctuation in the supply chains of coal enterprises in the aspects of market demand, raw coal production, and salable coal production. Under the condition of centralized decision making pattern compared with the decentralize one, the supply chain can produce more overall profit with a more balanced supply. With all other conditions being equal, the balanced supply degree is in inverse proportion to the uncertainty of the production of the raw coal increases and the coal washing, and is in proportion to the market demand. This paper proposes to establish profit and risk sharing coordination mechanisms. As a result, the supply chains can be well-coordinated and their balanced supply capacity can be highly enhanced. Under the emergency circumstance of demand and supply, the coal enterprises can reach a balanced supply through anti-emergency decision making mechanism and through adopting the anti-emergency supply chain to expand the original production plan.