The Research On Labor Resources And Economic Development In China

Since the 21st Century, with a new round of economic growth, Population andeconomic contradictions are gradually obvious. For example, dependency ratio ofpopulation decreased year by year, wage increased quickly. They shows that there is arich labor resources in China, and the demand of the labor resources is is exuberant.Force of rural surplus labor transfer continues. To explain these contradictory, basedon the characteristics of Chinese population and economic development, thisdissertation analyzes the relationship between supply and demand of labor resourcesin China, and discusses whether China has reached the Lewis turning point, even if toChina's future development, whether Lewis model has predictive effect. Then itsystematically analyzes the situation of China's economic development, and considersthe labor factor, in order to predict the future of economic adjustment.Firstly, this dessertation described the research background, research methodsand ideas, as well as innovation and lack of, and then based on the concept in definingthe population, labor force, on population, reviewed labor force and its economicimpact at home and abroad.Since reform and opening up, the double stimulus of macroeconomic sustainedhigh growth and agricultural productivity revolution, made some historicachievements in employment restructuring.Continuing non-agricultural employmentabsorbed hundreds of millions of new labor force, the unprecedented scale of thelabor transfer made agricultural labor ratio declining. It is foreseeable that China'spopulation and labor force will reach the peak within a few years, however, thetransfer of agricultural labor and new entrants into the labor force will remain thesupply pressure to the non-agriculture employment. In this process, China's laborwages also continue to maintain the rapid growth, the wages of migrant workers hasalso changed the slow growth before, and grows rapidly. By summarizing the fact of"Both the amount and price growth" in labor market of employment and wages, andthen combined labor supply factors, it gave the preliminary interpretation. Therefore,we have established a new Lewis model, the relaxation of invariable assumptions ofthe agricultural labor productivity and wages, got a suitable interpretation frameworkfor the specific situation in China. From this we can see, the total labor supply growth will soon reach the peak, the demographic bonus on economic impetus will graduallydecline,To China, a country is in the process of transition, the agricultural labor force,or the potential labor can be transferred is a key factor in decision changes in the levelof potential growth rate of China's economic. The long-term data in OECD countriesshow that the employment transition and the decline in the ratio of agricultural laborhave universality. With the rapid economic growth and employment restructuring, aswell as China's agricultural labor ratio declining, we can believe that if China'seconomy sustain rapid growth, the ratio of agricultural labor force will continue to bean average annual rate of more than one percentage point decline in the next twodecades, and will reach 13% or even lower levels in 2030. The dessertationestablished a simple model to analytic the determining factor of agricultural laborratio changes, combined with empirical data to predict the main variable parametersthat promote the agricultural labor ratio decline in the future. From this perspective,we observed the realities of China and look forward the trend in future, and learnedthat China's labor transfer past peak, but the employment transition process willcontinue, non-agricultural employment supply pressure will continue to exist for along.Secondly, the dessertation points out, the overall demand in the labor market willbe subject to long-term growth and aggregate demand fluctuations or other macrovariables. Thus whether it is understanding the mechanism of economicmodernization in employment transition, or to understand the dynamic characteristicsof a particular period of the labor market, in addition to the supply factors of the studypopulation, labor force transfer, we should pay attention to the impact of long-termeconomic growth and fluctuations in aggregate demand or other demand factors. Inrecent years, in the context of macroeconomic rapid growth, it appeared the situationthat both the employment and wage growth in China's labor market. Based on theperspective of macro research that emphasizes the link between macroeconomicgrowth and the labor market, specifically, we explored the interactive relationshipbetween the changes in the labor market and economic growth characteristics, andcome to the views as follows: since the beginning of the new century, China'smacroeconomic growth, be supported by the positive factors of stages of developmentand the micro-mechanisms, It has economic rationality in the fundamentals, thuspromoting employment growth, and represents the phased achievement of China'slabor market transformation. At the same time, due to the cyclical nature of China's economic growth, labor market operation and employment expansion fluctuate, manyproblems have emerged.Thirdly, through further research, this dessertation discussed the importance ofhuman capital, rather than a simple inspection of the labor supply adequacy. Because,China's potential labor supply is relatively abundant in quite a long period of time, butmacroeconomic fluctuations will make the labor transfer process be not easy. If labortransfer stagnation, China's economy likely to fall into the trap of low growth.However, if the accumulation of human capital is able to maintain the rapid pace,China's economy still continue to grow. In view of this, this dessertation argue thathuman capital is an important perspective to explain China's economic growth, andattempted to measure the contribution of human capital for economic growth in China.It provides a comprehensive analysis framework of the human capital, it includedsome different form, for example, education, migration, job training, learning bydoing, and unfied measured on the basis of existing research. Based on introduced themeasurement methods of the human capital contribution to economic growth, thisdessertation measured the contribution of different forms of human capital foreconomic growth in China, and after the measured, we found that explanatory powerof the human capital accumulation to China's economic growth is very strong.Therefore,even if the potential amount of labor can be transferred will go into theslowdown in growth or even decline in range, but it is still possible to achieve soundand rapid economic growth by the rapid accumulation of human capital.Lastly, faced with the challenges of the sustainability of labor transfer to thefuture sustainable economic development, this dessertation made the mainconclusions and put forward some policy recommendations as follows: make full useof the "demographic bonus" to improve the utilization of labor resources; increaseinvestment in human capital, and improve labor mobility; improve and perfect thelabor market, promote the adjustment of industrial structure, and vigorously developthe "silver industry" to adapt to the gradual aging trend of the age structure of China'slabor resources; develop effective policies to ease the economic cyclical fluctuations,while properly perfect the many auxiliary services, ensure that the surplus labortransfer remained relatively stable.