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Spatial Panel Econometric Analysis On The Inter-provincial Spillover-effects Of Telecom Services To Regional Economic Growth

Posted on:2012-10-15Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:Z Y CengFull Text:PDF
GTID:1119330371494822Subject:Management Science and Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The rapid growth of the correspond means, network technology and transportations have been diminishing the geographical regional distance cut off, changing the spatial structure of social economic relation as well. The synthefical service capacity on behalf of telecommunication services is affecting condition of regional locations, basis of net meaning, and is coming out gradually by changing the flow of producting essential factors in districts. The increasingly advanced information technics and convienient traffic make regional development may get wider field of vision, which reconstruct their domain of economy in district relations, characterized by adjact networks, and bring about new type relation, network neighbor. Regional development is facing a kind of new structure of competition and cooperation under mutual influence of the network neighbor, spillover of districts is longing for new theoritic explanation and guidance.On the other hand, spatial thinking that stresses mutual reaction draws more and more attention. In the meantime, spatial data analytic technology gains speedy progress. These thinking ways and mathematical analysis method, provides a wider choice of analytical tools for the research of regional spillover. For the obove-mentioned reasons, this paper combined with practical status of regional growth in our country, is doing research in interregional spillover of telecom services, analyzes its feature, original law and the influence to its economic growth under a new technic background and theoretic method, offers theory support for local government accelerating its economic growth and central government forulating polities for coordinated developing in districts, answers the questions below through researching:Is there any interregional spillover of telecom servicers truly existing? How does it work? What actual influence to the regional economic growth? How to analyze and identify with advanced measurement like spatial panel model, and so on? How does the government make the rapid growth and districts coordinate equilibrated come true base on the character of spillover.But overall, there are still some places for further improvement in existing researches as the following:â‘ Pay little attention to the spatial effect;â‘¡Research mainly studies on the geographical distance, but the new regional relation, the network neighbor which is produced from quickly developed network information is little attentive;â‘¢The current study lacks of advanced analytical method, which needs spatial data analysis, esp. spatial panel model.This paper goes closer to realily because of analysis of the telecom services spillover in the context of network and geography neighbor in parallel, investigates the regiongal spillover-effect and effectiveness of attracting essential factors of production by telecom services from a distinctively visual angle.For more practical way, this study, based on the existing research results, has made improvements through adopting related leading technics and setting up more realistic models. Reality of regional development can be valid analyzed in this study, which both guides into practice and supplements to the existing regional development theory. The dynamic spatial panel data model and related leading technics are put in use in order to evaluate objectively that can effectively overcome the following difficulties:â‘ Estimated parameter has bias;â‘¡Comparability of results from related methods;â‘¢Conclusion'scalability and suniversality to different conditions and different time limitation.From the point of view of treatment on the studied question:The telecom services, which is regarded as changing interregional relation means, is analyzed its influences to the local district economic growth and others from regional competitive sight, not in its contribution to the local place only, but benefits to its analysis of law of spillover-effect with this distinctive cut in. It establishes spatial weigh matrix which in integratedly considering the dispavity and interrelation of interregional economic construction and technical developing, in order to trulier explore the size of influence of neighbor, and with this basis to set up spatial weigh matrix reflecting economic and technical relations. The influence from geographical contiguity is not neglected in the investigation so as to go closer to actual situation. Not only is the regional relation of geographic neighbor often adopted in the existing documents investigated in the course of analysis, but can multual-effect variation in districts analyzed in the case of increasingly development of network information through leading into network neighbors, It benefits to the theory, which is exploring spillover law and verifying regional growing utmostly turning to be diffusion-transformation from practical way.The technical innovation are of the follow:1. In this paper the robustness of LM test of cross-sectional model spatial test is extended to spatial panel data model, and gives the corresponding formula for the test.2. Introduce the Bayesian models selection to spatial panel econometric model and build a unified Bayesian spatial panel data model selection framework.3. Overcome the difficulties of the bootstrap technology in spatial non-stationary panel analysis. Presented bootstrap on spatial panel cointegration P test.4. Presented spatial nonstationarity test methods on spatial panel econometric model with spatial heteroscedasticity, and the corresponding implementation steps, the corresponding criterion.5. Through analysis on spatial panel data model errors. Its spillover effects clear by variable knowned, This method can confirm the regional economics theories turn flow back to diffusion from the empirical aspects.In this study, it is conducting researches, which has been putting regional telecom services in a broader view, compared with the geography adjacent to re-examined and analyzed from a new systematic thinking, based on analysis of domestic and international telecom&infrastructure on overflow effects, regional economic growth and agglomeration economics. It has been detailed and overall discussing this issue, under the support and paving way of basic theoretical research and related results, mainly according to the inquiry to the law of the act of telecom spillover effect to economic growth, merged with theory of regional development, creating and growing some involved analytic tools. Finally, Through econnometrics analysis and empirical test, the following conclusions made by the corresponding empirical results:First, the regional telecom services will promote regional economic growth, that economic growth in this region has a positive effect.Second, there are interregional spillover effects of the telecom services to economic growth, but they are uncertain, both may contribute to other areas of economic growth may slow down economic growth in other areas. That there are positive spillover effects may also be negative spillover effects.Third, the regional telecom services to other regions of economic growth and stage of development of the role, at different stages of development, telecom services, showed different effects:there are negative spillover effects----polarization (concentration) effect of the central regional telecom services to outlying regions in the early stages, when the input of telecommunications reaches a certain stage, the spillover effects of the central regional telecom services to the regional economic growth outlying regions will translate into positive----diffusion (driven) effect.In view of this, the central government must be adopt appropriate policy to supervise its development of telecom services, While encouraging local ownership developments, so that telecom services keep the best volume of investment view from the social benefits to achieve various regions development balanced, and to avoid being just as a competitive tool in some local government and excessive use.
Keywords/Search Tags:Network Neighborhood, Bootstrap Cointegration P test, spatial panel, model selectionframework of the Bayesian
PDF Full Text Request
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