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Research On The Law Of Real Estate Fluctuation

Posted on:2006-04-04Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y L ShiFull Text:PDF
GTID:1119360182472430Subject:Management systems and management engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
As a guiding and basic industry, real estate of China has been developing along with the market-based reform of our national economy for more than 20 years. It has become the backbone industry of China economy, but the development process is not just a plain sailing, and actually it suffered many fluctuations. The real estate industry is widely correlative and strongly influencing, and an acute fluctuation of real estate is devastating which is prone to jeopardize the whole national economy. To study real estate fluctuation is helpful to master the development law of real estate industry and market, having a creative significance in theory. On the other hand, exploring the real estate fluctuation and macro-control measures is of more important practical significance, beneficial to guiding the development of real estate industry.The study in this doctoral dissertation begins with economic cycle theory and real estate cycle theory, critically inherits the previous theories about the fluctuation of real estate, and re-identifies the meaning of the fluctuation and the cycle of real estate. A theoretical model of fluctuation is set up, in which the fluctuation of real estate is divided into two different fluctuations: primary trend and cycle. And the fact that cycle is no longer the main form of the fluctuation of real estate is pointed out.In the part of systematic analysis to the fluctuation of real estate, the formation reason, influencing factors and mechanism of primary trend and cycle are discussed respectively, and the mutual relationship between the two forms is studied. Through all of that, the law of the real estate fluctuation is deeply opened out.The dissertation makes a case study on the fluctuation of Shanghai's real estate industry. Firstly the fluctuation of Shanghai's real estate industry is described by qualitative and quantitative analysis and some reviews are made on the present conclusions about the fluctuation. And then the fluctuation of house price in Shanghai is taken as the research object to substantiate the application of the above theoretical model. Lastly, the special influencing factors on the fluctuation of Shanghai's real estate industry are analyzed.The last part of the research is about macro-control policy which focuses onanti-cycle measures in real estate industry. A framework of anti-cycle policy and a model of alert level are established. And also the framework and the model are applied to the practice of Shanghai, with some countermeasures put forth.
Keywords/Search Tags:real estate fluctuation, primary trend, cycle, anti-cycle policy
PDF Full Text Request
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