Research On Theory And Methods Of Oil Market Risk Management

Much importance has been attched to oil market risk management because of sharpfluctuation of oil price. The dissertation studied the risk of Oil market from price fluctuationreasons, risk quantitative analysis and risk control and management of oil price, and this willcertainly make some reference to oil market risk management.The dissertation first studied the supply and demand from world oil market, including thereserves, the output, consumption and area distribution of oil in the world. This makes us have awhole understanding of world oil market. Then having studied oil price, we put emphasis onanalysis of the reasons that affect the oil price from market supply, market demand and politicalfactors. Through analyzing the oil fluctuation reasons, the movement trend in oil price of world oilmarket is grasped, which will lay foundation for oil market management.Oil futures market has been widely utilized as an effective approach to avoid oil price risk,some beneficial reference is reached after study of the development status, characteristics anddevelopment trend in world oil futures market. Based on this, the mode and operational scheme ofoil futures market are set up from contract design, transaction operation and risk managementsystem aspects.It is very important to analyze the risk of oil market because of the sharp fluctuation of oilprice. The dissertation applies the VaR method that estimates risk of finance market to oil market.After the principle of VaR is introduced, the model of VaR based on Garch-M for oil price isestablished. It is proved that the VaR method is very effective after the model is applied to Brentoil market.The extreme value theory can better describe the extreme fluctuation state of oil price, so, itis very suited to analyze the risk of oil market. Based on the extreme value theory, the model ofextreme value theory for Brent oil market is established. In succession, the empirical case study iscarried out with Brent oil market. The result shows that the model can better control and managethe risk of oil price.Finally, the dissertation makes a deep look out at the problems of oil security management inChina, and some reasonable solution is put forward to in regard with these problems.