The Research On Theoretical Methods Of Management Of Agriculture Risks And Their Application

The fundamental characteristic of agricultural production that the natural reproductioninterlaces with the economic reproduction determines the high risk in agriculture.Besides the natural risks, the agricultural production is still confronted with such risksas technological, economic, social and political risks. After China's entry into WTO,while agriculture in China is confronted with the flinty challenges from developedcountries, all these risks that agriculture in China has been confronted with will notdisappear;on the contrary, these risks will be even severer with the interlacedeepening. Consequently, agriculture will incur substantial losses, the ecologicalenvironment will deteriorate increasingly, and the social stability will be tested, whichwill affect the sustainable development of agriculture.To find out a practical way-out in the management of agricultural risks, thisdissertation, while making use of such basic theories as the systematic science andmanagement of risks, draws a preliminary skeleton of management of agriculturalrisks, analyses the characters of agriculture risks and the mechanism of itsdevelopment, creates the mathematical modes and methods to scale the agriculturalrisks, and puts forward and analyses the major techniques in the management ofagricultural risks. The key achievements in the research are as follows:I. The preliminary skeleton of the management of agricultural risks has beencreated. On the basis of the analysis of the theory of agricultural risk, thegeneral and specific goals of management of agricultural risks have been putforward.II. The type, character and the causes of agricultural risks have been detailedlyanalyzed, and the mechanism of the formation of agricultural risks has beendisclosed, which supplies scientific warrant in choosing the technology of themanagement of agricultural risks.III. All mathematical methods to scale agricultural risks have been applied to thescaling of agricultural risks in the expectation of quantifying risks inagricultural system with the method of quantificational method.IV. The technology of management of agricultural risks is created with abrand-new horizon. Putting away the traditional classification of technology ofmanagement of risk, it create the technology of management of agriculturalrisks from the following three aspects, namely, the rational combination ofagricultural system, market of derivatives, and agriculture protection. Thesetechnologies of management of agricultural risks include not onlycontrol-oriented technologies of management of risks, but alsofinance-oriented technologies of management of risks;they involve not onlythe avoidance, control and transfer of such pure risks as natural agriculturalrisks, but also the avoidance, control and transfer of investment risks such asthe risk in agriculture market;they cover both macro and micro risks, makingit more manipulative and practical.V. The complex theory is applied to the management of agricultural risk. Afteranalysis of the complex character of agricultural system and its risk, it putsforward to viewpoint that the fragility in agricultural system is therepresentation of risk in agricultural system, and probe into the management ofchaotic risk in agricultural system from the aspects such as the sub-theory ofsuction in agricultural system, from ramification to chaos, the theory ofbreaking-up the form in agricultural system, and the mutation in agriculturalsystem.VI. It has applied the theory and method of management of agricultural risk to thepractice. It also systematically analyzes the risk that agriculture in HebeiProvince has been confronted with and its influence on the sustainabledevelopment of agriculture in Hebei Province, scales the natural risks andmarket risks that agriculture in Hebei Province has been confronted with, andputs forward the countermeasures of management of risks to realize thesustainable development of agriculture in Hebei Province.