Analysis Of The Characters Of Refined Oil Market And Study Of The Enterprise's Development

Focusing on the refined oil market, the dissertation analyzes the pricemechanism and structure of refined oil in our country, presents the two meanings ofthe mechanism, one of which first directly connects with international refined market,and the other is price made by our government. The study result shows that the priceof domestic refined oil has a relation with price of international refined oil, nationalindustrial policy and domestic refined oil demand and supply.Using the nonlinear dynamical chaotic theory, the dissertation calculates theLyapunov exponent of the price of refined oil in the Wintergreen, Singapore and NewYork separately, which shows the chaotic characters of the refined oil price. Theforecasting scale of the price is presented, and then by using chaotic theory withartificial neutral network, we predicted the price of the gasoline, diesel oil in the threemarkets. The predictive results are encouraging.With the GDP forecasting method, sector's survey forecasting method, the greyforecast GM (1, 1) and DGM (2, 1) models, the domestic gasoline and diesel oildemand during 'ShiYiWu' are predicted. Using Genetic Algorithm, the weights ofdifferent forecast model and Genetic Algorithm-Combining Forecasting model are got.The comparative results from different methods show that the GA-CF model canincrease the forecast accuracy greatly. Using SWOT tool, the dissertation presents the development strategy that canpromote production ability, quality and improve the structure of the production. Basedon the production and development strategy of HBPEC, the three-reconstruct schemesare suggested. Using the forecast results of the refined oil demand and change in thedemand structure in this dissertation and by calculating the main economicalevaluation data and indices, the reconstruct scheme with higher economical and socialeffect is confirmed.